USA v Paraguay
Back to board
Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-13 · 01:00

USA v Paraguay

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability76%
Implied (with margin)76%
Model edge
Odds1.31 3/10
Crowd odds — Polymarket
USA48%
Draw28%
Paraguay24%
$633,129 liquidity · $3,110,966 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Draw no bet: USA67%1.49
Draw no bet: Paraguay33%2.98
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: No53%1.88
Under 2.5 Goals50%1.70
Over 2.5 Goals50%2.40
BTTS: Yes47%2.08
MarketsProbOddsEdge
USA47%2.10
The Draw29%3.40
Paraguay24%4.20
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — USA or Draw73%
Double chance — USA or Paraguay72%
Draw no bet — USA63%
Double chance — Paraguay or Draw55%
USA to win45%
Draw no bet — Paraguay37%
Draw29%
Paraguay to win27%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%
Over 0.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals87%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals72%
BTTS — Yes55%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%
BTTS — No45%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.541%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Goals range — 4-6 goals26%
Under 1.5 goals24%
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.514%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Under 0.5 goals9%
Over 5.5 goals5%
Goals range — 7+ goals2%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Paraguay to score 137%
Both score no draw35%
USA to score 133%
Paraguay to score 032%
USA clean sheet32%
Winning margin — Draw29%
USA to score 225%
USA win to nil24%
USA to score 022%
Paraguay clean sheet22%
Winning margin — USA by 121%
Paraguay to score 221%
USA to score 3+20%
Winning margin — Paraguay by 116%
Winning margin — USA by 214%
Correct score 1-114%
Paraguay win to nil13%
Paraguay to score 3+11%
Correct score 2-19%
Correct score 1-09%
Correct score 0-09%
Correct score 2-08%
Winning margin — Paraguay by 28%
Correct score 1-27%
Correct score 0-16%
Winning margin — USA by 36%
Correct score 2-25%
Correct score 3-15%
Correct score 0-25%
Winning margin — Paraguay by 33%
Winning margin — USA by 42%
Winning margin — USA by 5+1%
Winning margin — Paraguay by 41%
Winning margin — Paraguay by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals91%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals71%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals65%
USA to win either half57%
1st Half result — Draw45%
Half with most goals — 2nd42%
Paraguay to win either half41%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals35%
1st Half result — USA33%
Half with most goals — 1st30%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals29%
Half with most goals — Equal28%
HT/FT USA / USA27%
USA to score in both halves24%
1st Half result — Paraguay22%
HT/FT Draw / Draw18%
HT/FT Draw / USA16%
HT/FT Paraguay / Paraguay16%
Paraguay to score in both halves15%
USA to win both halves12%
HT/FT Draw / Paraguay11%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals9%
Paraguay to win both halves5%
HT/FT Paraguay / Draw5%
HT/FT USA / Draw5%
HT/FT Paraguay / USA2%
HT/FT USA / Paraguay2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — USA +2.597%
Handicap — Paraguay -2.591%
Handicap — USA +1.589%
Handicap — Paraguay -1.577%
Handicap — USA +0.573%
Handicap — Paraguay -0.555%
Handicap — USA -0.545%
Handicap — Paraguay +0.527%
Handicap — USA -1.523%
Handicap — Paraguay +1.511%
Handicap — USA -2.59%
Handicap — Paraguay +2.53%