USA v Australia
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Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-19 · 19:00

USA v Australia

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability77%
Implied (with margin)77%
Model edge
Odds1.29 3/10
Crowd odds — Polymarket
USA62%
Draw22%
Australia19%
$449,603 liquidity · $584,497 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Draw no bet: USA77%1.29
Draw no bet: Australia23%4.30
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: No53%1.88
Over 2.5 Goals52%2.02
Under 2.5 Goals48%1.96
BTTS: Yes47%2.08
MarketsProbOddsEdge
USA60%1.65
The Draw22%4.60
Australia18%5.50
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Australia or Draw76%
Double chance — USA or Australia72%
Draw no bet — Australia66%
Double chance — USA or Draw52%
Australia to win48%
Draw no bet — USA34%
Draw28%
USA to win25%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals94%
Over 0.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals86%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Under 3.5 goals71%
BTTS — Yes55%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals49%
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%
BTTS — No45%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.542%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Goals range — 4-6 goals27%
Under 1.5 goals23%
Goals range — 0-1 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals14%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Under 0.5 goals8%
Over 5.5 goals6%
Goals range — 7+ goals2%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
USA to score 137%
Both score no draw36%
USA to score 033%
Australia clean sheet33%
Australia to score 132%
Winning margin — Draw28%
Australia to score 226%
Australia win to nil25%
Australia to score 3+22%
Winning margin — Australia by 122%
USA to score 220%
Australia to score 020%
USA clean sheet20%
Winning margin — Australia by 215%
Winning margin — USA by 115%
Correct score 1-113%
USA win to nil12%
USA to score 3+10%
Correct score 1-210%
Correct score 0-19%
Correct score 0-29%
Correct score 0-08%
Winning margin — Australia by 37%
Winning margin — USA by 27%
Correct score 2-17%
Correct score 1-06%
Correct score 2-25%
Correct score 1-35%
Correct score 0-35%
Winning margin — Australia by 43%
Winning margin — USA by 32%
Winning margin — Australia by 5+1%
Winning margin — USA by 41%
Winning margin — USA by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals89%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals69%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals68%
Australia to win either half61%
Half with most goals — 2nd43%
1st Half result — Draw42%
USA to win either half40%
1st Half result — Australia36%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals32%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals31%
Half with most goals — 1st31%
HT/FT Australia / Australia29%
Australia to score in both halves29%
Half with most goals — Equal26%
1st Half result — USA22%
HT/FT Draw / Australia17%
USA to score in both halves17%
HT/FT Draw / Draw16%
HT/FT USA / USA15%
Australia to win both halves14%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals11%
HT/FT Draw / USA10%
USA to win both halves5%
HT/FT Australia / Draw5%
HT/FT USA / Draw5%
HT/FT USA / Australia3%
HT/FT Australia / USA2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Australia -2.597%
Handicap — Australia -1.590%
Handicap — USA +2.589%
Handicap — Australia -0.576%
Handicap — USA +1.574%
Handicap — USA +0.552%
Handicap — Australia +0.548%
Handicap — Australia +1.526%
Handicap — USA -0.525%
Handicap — Australia +2.511%
Handicap — USA -1.510%
Handicap — USA -2.53%