USA v Australia
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USA v Australia
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability77%
Implied (with margin)77%
Model edge—
Odds1.29 3/10
Crowd odds — Polymarket
USA62%
Draw22%
Australia19%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Draw no bet: USA77%1.29—
Draw no bet: Australia23%4.30—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: No53%1.88—
Over 2.5 Goals52%2.02—
Under 2.5 Goals48%1.96—
BTTS: Yes47%2.08—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
USA60%1.65—
The Draw22%4.60—
Australia18%5.50—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Australia or Draw76%——
Double chance — USA or Australia72%——
Draw no bet — Australia66%——
Double chance — USA or Draw52%——
Australia to win48%——
Draw no bet — USA34%——
Draw28%——
USA to win25%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals94%——
Over 0.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals86%——
Over 1.5 goals77%——
Under 3.5 goals71%——
BTTS — Yes55%——
Over 2.5 goals52%——
Under 2.5 goals49%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS — No45%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.542%——
Over 3.5 goals29%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals27%——
Under 1.5 goals23%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals23%——
Over 4.5 goals14%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals8%——
Over 5.5 goals6%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
USA to score 137%——
Both score no draw36%——
USA to score 033%——
Australia clean sheet33%——
Australia to score 132%——
Winning margin — Draw28%——
Australia to score 226%——
Australia win to nil25%——
Australia to score 3+22%——
Winning margin — Australia by 122%——
USA to score 220%——
Australia to score 020%——
USA clean sheet20%——
Winning margin — Australia by 215%——
Winning margin — USA by 115%——
Correct score 1-113%——
USA win to nil12%——
USA to score 3+10%——
Correct score 1-210%——
Correct score 0-19%——
Correct score 0-29%——
Correct score 0-08%——
Winning margin — Australia by 37%——
Winning margin — USA by 27%——
Correct score 2-17%——
Correct score 1-06%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Correct score 1-35%——
Correct score 0-35%——
Winning margin — Australia by 43%——
Winning margin — USA by 32%——
Winning margin — Australia by 5+1%——
Winning margin — USA by 41%——
Winning margin — USA by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals89%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals69%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals68%——
Australia to win either half61%——
Half with most goals — 2nd43%——
1st Half result — Draw42%——
USA to win either half40%——
1st Half result — Australia36%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals32%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals31%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
HT/FT Australia / Australia29%——
Australia to score in both halves29%——
Half with most goals — Equal26%——
1st Half result — USA22%——
HT/FT Draw / Australia17%——
USA to score in both halves17%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw16%——
HT/FT USA / USA15%——
Australia to win both halves14%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals11%——
HT/FT Draw / USA10%——
USA to win both halves5%——
HT/FT Australia / Draw5%——
HT/FT USA / Draw5%——
HT/FT USA / Australia3%——
HT/FT Australia / USA2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Australia -2.597%——
Handicap — Australia -1.590%——
Handicap — USA +2.589%——
Handicap — Australia -0.576%——
Handicap — USA +1.574%——
Handicap — USA +0.552%——
Handicap — Australia +0.548%——
Handicap — Australia +1.526%——
Handicap — USA -0.525%——
Handicap — Australia +2.511%——
Handicap — USA -1.510%——
Handicap — USA -2.53%——