Alex de Minaur v Shapovalov
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Tennis·ATP London 2026· 2026-06-17 · 11:40

Alex de Minaur v Shapovalov

Recommended bet
Alex De Minaur
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability76%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge-2.9%
Odds1.27 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Alex de Minaur78%
Shapovalov22%
$53,200 liquidity · $14,843 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Alex de Minaur's 3%
  • Alex de Minaur wins 40% of return points vs Shapovalov's 37%
  • Shapovalov serves aces on 10% of points vs Alex de Minaur's 6%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Alex de Minaur to win73%1.38—
Shapovalov to win27%3.65—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Alex De Minaur78%1.27—
Denis Shapovalov22%4.40—