USA v Belgium
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Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-07-07 · 00:00

USA v Belgium

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability80%
Implied (with margin)80%
Model edge
Odds1.25 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
USA35%
Draw30%
Belgium38%
$678,032 liquidity · $1,441,618 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Draw no bet: Belgium51%1.94
Draw no bet: USA49%2.02
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: Yes61%1.63
Over 2.5 Goals55%1.76
Under 2.5 Goals45%2.24
BTTS: No39%2.50
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Belgium37%2.70
USA35%2.84
The Draw28%3.50
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Belgium or Draw77%
Double chance — USA or Belgium74%
Draw no bet — Belgium69%
Belgium to win51%
Double chance — USA or Draw49%
Draw no bet — USA31%
Draw26%
USA to win23%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 5.5 goals93%
Under 4.5 goals83%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals67%
BTTS — Yes57%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals45%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%
BTTS — No43%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Goals range — 4-6 goals30%
Under 1.5 goals20%
Goals range — 0-1 goals20%
Over 4.5 goals17%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Over 5.5 goals7%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%
USA to score 137%
USA to score 032%
Belgium clean sheet32%
Belgium to score 130%
Belgium to score 227%
Winning margin — Draw26%
Belgium to score 3+26%
Belgium win to nil25%
Winning margin — Belgium by 122%
USA to score 221%
Belgium to score 017%
USA clean sheet17%
Winning margin — Belgium by 216%
Winning margin — USA by 114%
Correct score 1-113%
USA to score 3+11%
USA win to nil10%
Correct score 1-210%
Correct score 0-29%
Correct score 0-18%
Winning margin — Belgium by 38%
Correct score 0-07%
Winning margin — USA by 27%
Correct score 2-16%
Correct score 1-36%
Correct score 2-26%
Correct score 0-35%
Correct score 1-05%
Winning margin — Belgium by 43%
Winning margin — USA by 32%
Winning margin — Belgium by 5+2%
Winning margin — USA by 41%
Winning margin — USA by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals84%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals75%
Belgium to win either half66%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals60%
Half with most goals — 2nd45%
1st Half result — Belgium40%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals40%
USA to win either half40%
1st Half result — Draw38%
Belgium to score in both halves37%
HT/FT Belgium / Belgium33%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals25%
Half with most goals — Equal24%
1st Half result — USA22%
USA to score in both halves20%
Belgium to win both halves18%
HT/FT Draw / Belgium17%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals16%
HT/FT USA / USA14%
HT/FT Draw / Draw13%
HT/FT Draw / USA9%
USA to win both halves5%
HT/FT Belgium / Draw5%
HT/FT USA / Draw5%
HT/FT USA / Belgium3%
HT/FT Belgium / USA2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Belgium -2.597%
Handicap — Belgium -1.591%
Handicap — USA +2.587%
Handicap — Belgium -0.577%
Handicap — USA +1.571%
Handicap — Belgium +0.551%
Handicap — USA +0.549%
Handicap — Belgium +1.529%
Handicap — USA -0.523%
Handicap — Belgium +2.513%
Handicap — USA -1.59%
Handicap — USA -2.53%