USA v Belgium
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USA v Belgium
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability80%
Implied (with margin)80%
Model edge—
Odds1.25 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
USA35%
Draw30%
Belgium38%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Draw no bet: Belgium51%1.94—
Draw no bet: USA49%2.02—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: Yes61%1.63—
Over 2.5 Goals55%1.76—
Under 2.5 Goals45%2.24—
BTTS: No39%2.50—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Belgium37%2.70—
USA35%2.84—
The Draw28%3.50—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Belgium or Draw77%——
Double chance — USA or Belgium74%——
Draw no bet — Belgium69%——
Belgium to win51%——
Double chance — USA or Draw49%——
Draw no bet — USA31%——
Draw26%——
USA to win23%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals83%——
Over 1.5 goals80%——
Under 3.5 goals67%——
BTTS — Yes57%——
Over 2.5 goals55%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
Under 2.5 goals45%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%——
BTTS — No43%——
Over 3.5 goals33%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals30%——
Under 1.5 goals20%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals20%——
Over 4.5 goals17%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
USA to score 137%——
USA to score 032%——
Belgium clean sheet32%——
Belgium to score 130%——
Belgium to score 227%——
Winning margin — Draw26%——
Belgium to score 3+26%——
Belgium win to nil25%——
Winning margin — Belgium by 122%——
USA to score 221%——
Belgium to score 017%——
USA clean sheet17%——
Winning margin — Belgium by 216%——
Winning margin — USA by 114%——
Correct score 1-113%——
USA to score 3+11%——
USA win to nil10%——
Correct score 1-210%——
Correct score 0-29%——
Correct score 0-18%——
Winning margin — Belgium by 38%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Winning margin — USA by 27%——
Correct score 2-16%——
Correct score 1-36%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 0-35%——
Correct score 1-05%——
Winning margin — Belgium by 43%——
Winning margin — USA by 32%——
Winning margin — Belgium by 5+2%——
Winning margin — USA by 41%——
Winning margin — USA by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals84%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals75%——
Belgium to win either half66%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals60%——
Half with most goals — 2nd45%——
1st Half result — Belgium40%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals40%——
USA to win either half40%——
1st Half result — Draw38%——
Belgium to score in both halves37%——
HT/FT Belgium / Belgium33%——
Half with most goals — 1st32%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals25%——
Half with most goals — Equal24%——
1st Half result — USA22%——
USA to score in both halves20%——
Belgium to win both halves18%——
HT/FT Draw / Belgium17%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals16%——
HT/FT USA / USA14%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw13%——
HT/FT Draw / USA9%——
USA to win both halves5%——
HT/FT Belgium / Draw5%——
HT/FT USA / Draw5%——
HT/FT USA / Belgium3%——
HT/FT Belgium / USA2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Belgium -2.597%——
Handicap — Belgium -1.591%——
Handicap — USA +2.587%——
Handicap — Belgium -0.577%——
Handicap — USA +1.571%——
Handicap — Belgium +0.551%——
Handicap — USA +0.549%——
Handicap — Belgium +1.529%——
Handicap — USA -0.523%——
Handicap — Belgium +2.513%——
Handicap — USA -1.59%——
Handicap — USA -2.53%——