Newcastle v Bournemouth
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Football·English Premier League· 2026-09-05 · 11:30

Newcastle v Bournemouth

Recommended bet
Newcastle or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability84%
Implied (with margin)84%
Model edge
Odds1.19 2/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Newcastle46%
Draw26%
Bournemouth28%
$183,925 liquidity · $197,411 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
GoalsProbOddsEdge
BTTS: Yes64%1.56
Over 2.5 Goals57%1.65
Under 2.5 Goals43%2.50
BTTS: No36%2.74
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Newcastle45%2.20
Bournemouth29%3.45
The Draw26%3.85
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Newcastle or Draw84%
Draw no bet — Newcastle79%
Double chance — Newcastle or Bournemouth77%
Newcastle to win61%
Double chance — Bournemouth or Draw39%
Draw23%
Draw no bet — Bournemouth21%
Bournemouth to win16%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals94%
Under 5.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals82%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Under 3.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals57%
BTTS — Yes55%
Goals range — 2-3 goals46%
BTTS — No45%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.544%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Goals range — 4-6 goals32%
Under 1.5 goals19%
Goals range — 0-1 goals19%
Over 4.5 goals18%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.511%
Over 5.5 goals8%
Under 0.5 goals6%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Bournemouth to score 038%
Newcastle clean sheet38%
Both score no draw38%
Bournemouth to score 137%
Newcastle to score 3+33%
Newcastle win to nil32%
Newcastle to score 227%
Newcastle to score 127%
Winning margin — Draw23%
Winning margin — Newcastle by 123%
Winning margin — Newcastle by 219%
Bournemouth to score 218%
Newcastle to score 013%
Bournemouth clean sheet13%
Correct score 1-111%
Winning margin — Newcastle by 311%
Correct score 2-010%
Winning margin — Bournemouth by 110%
Correct score 2-110%
Correct score 1-09%
Bournemouth to score 3+7%
Correct score 3-07%
Bournemouth win to nil7%
Correct score 3-17%
Correct score 0-06%
Winning margin — Newcastle by 45%
Correct score 2-25%
Correct score 1-25%
Winning margin — Bournemouth by 24%
Correct score 0-14%
Winning margin — Newcastle by 5+3%
Winning margin — Bournemouth by 31%
Winning margin — Bournemouth by 40%
Winning margin — Bournemouth by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals81%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals78%
Newcastle to win either half75%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals56%
1st Half result — Newcastle48%
Half with most goals — 2nd46%
Newcastle to score in both halves46%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals45%
HT/FT Newcastle / Newcastle42%
1st Half result — Draw35%
Bournemouth to win either half32%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
Newcastle to win both halves25%
Half with most goals — Equal23%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals22%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals19%
HT/FT Draw / Newcastle18%
1st Half result — Bournemouth17%
Bournemouth to score in both halves17%
HT/FT Draw / Draw10%
HT/FT Bournemouth / Bournemouth9%
HT/FT Draw / Bournemouth6%
HT/FT Bournemouth / Draw4%
HT/FT Newcastle / Draw4%
HT/FT Bournemouth / Newcastle4%
Bournemouth to win both halves3%
HT/FT Newcastle / Bournemouth1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Newcastle +2.599%
Handicap — Newcastle +1.594%
Handicap — Newcastle +0.584%
Handicap — Bournemouth -2.581%
Handicap — Bournemouth -1.562%
Handicap — Newcastle -0.561%
Handicap — Bournemouth -0.539%
Handicap — Newcastle -1.538%
Handicap — Newcastle -2.519%
Handicap — Bournemouth +0.516%
Handicap — Bournemouth +1.56%
Handicap — Bournemouth +2.52%