Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz
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Tennis·Men's US Open 2026· 2026-08-30 · 15:00

Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability83%
Implied (with margin)83%
Model edge-0.7%
Odds1.20 1/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Safiullin17%
Carlos Alcaraz84%
$42,554 liquidity · $7,959 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Safiullin's 79%
  • Safiullin wins only 51% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 57%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Safiullin's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win82%1.22—
Safiullin to win18%5.58—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz83%1.20—
Roman Safiullin17%5.80—