Dortmund v Villarreal
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Dortmund v Villarreal
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability86%
Implied (with margin)86%
Model edge—
Odds1.16 1/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Dortmund56%
Draw23%
Villarreal22%
All markets
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Dortmund55%1.81—
Villarreal23%4.40—
The Draw23%4.40—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Dortmund or Draw86%——
Draw no bet — Dortmund82%——
Double chance — Dortmund or Villarreal80%——
Dortmund to win65%——
Double chance — Villarreal or Draw35%——
Draw21%——
Draw no bet — Villarreal18%——
Villarreal to win14%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals96%——
Under 5.5 goals87%——
Over 1.5 goals86%——
Under 4.5 goals75%——
Over 2.5 goals65%——
BTTS — Yes59%——
Under 3.5 goals57%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.550%——
Over 3.5 goals44%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals43%——
BTTS — No41%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals38%——
Under 2.5 goals35%——
Over 4.5 goals25%——
Under 1.5 goals14%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals14%——
Over 5.5 goals13%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.59%——
Goals range — 7+ goals6%——
Under 0.5 goals5%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw43%——
Dortmund to score 3+41%——
Villarreal to score 137%——
Villarreal to score 036%——
Dortmund clean sheet36%——
Dortmund win to nil31%——
Dortmund to score 226%——
Dortmund to score 123%——
Winning margin — Dortmund by 121%——
Winning margin — Draw21%——
Winning margin — Dortmund by 220%——
Villarreal to score 219%——
Winning margin — Dortmund by 313%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Dortmund to score 010%——
Villarreal clean sheet10%——
Correct score 2-09%——
Correct score 1-19%——
Winning margin — Villarreal by 19%——
Villarreal to score 3+9%——
Correct score 3-18%——
Correct score 3-07%——
Correct score 1-07%——
Winning margin — Dortmund by 47%——
Villarreal win to nil5%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Correct score 0-05%——
Winning margin — Dortmund by 5+5%——
Correct score 4-14%——
Correct score 4-04%——
Winning margin — Villarreal by 24%——
Winning margin — Villarreal by 31%——
Winning margin — Villarreal by 40%——
Winning margin — Villarreal by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals84%——
Dortmund to win either half75%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals75%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals60%——
1st Half result — Dortmund48%——
Half with most goals — 2nd45%——
Dortmund to score in both halves42%——
HT/FT Dortmund / Dortmund42%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals40%——
1st Half result — Draw37%——
Half with most goals — 1st32%——
Villarreal to win either half30%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals25%——
Dortmund to win both halves25%——
Half with most goals — Equal24%——
HT/FT Draw / Dortmund19%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals16%——
1st Half result — Villarreal16%——
Villarreal to score in both halves14%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw12%——
HT/FT Villarreal / Villarreal9%——
HT/FT Draw / Villarreal6%——
HT/FT Villarreal / Draw4%——
HT/FT Dortmund / Draw4%——
HT/FT Villarreal / Dortmund3%——
Villarreal to win both halves3%——
HT/FT Dortmund / Villarreal1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Dortmund +2.599%——
Handicap — Dortmund +1.595%——
Handicap — Dortmund +0.586%——
Handicap — Villarreal -2.576%——
Handicap — Dortmund -0.565%——
Handicap — Villarreal -1.556%——
Handicap — Dortmund -1.544%——
Handicap — Villarreal -0.535%——
Handicap — Dortmund -2.524%——
Handicap — Villarreal +0.514%——
Handicap — Villarreal +1.55%——
Handicap — Villarreal +2.51%——