Dortmund v Villarreal
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Football·UEFA Champions League· 2026-09-08 · 19:00

Dortmund v Villarreal

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability86%
Implied (with margin)86%
Model edge
Odds1.16 1/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Dortmund56%
Draw23%
Villarreal22%
$30,099 liquidity · $1,632 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Dortmund55%1.81
Villarreal23%4.40
The Draw23%4.40
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Dortmund or Draw86%
Draw no bet — Dortmund82%
Double chance — Dortmund or Villarreal80%
Dortmund to win65%
Double chance — Villarreal or Draw35%
Draw21%
Draw no bet — Villarreal18%
Villarreal to win14%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals96%
Under 5.5 goals87%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Under 4.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals65%
BTTS — Yes59%
Under 3.5 goals57%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.550%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Goals range — 2-3 goals43%
BTTS — No41%
Goals range — 4-6 goals38%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Over 4.5 goals25%
Under 1.5 goals14%
Goals range — 0-1 goals14%
Over 5.5 goals13%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.59%
Goals range — 7+ goals6%
Under 0.5 goals5%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw43%
Dortmund to score 3+41%
Villarreal to score 137%
Villarreal to score 036%
Dortmund clean sheet36%
Dortmund win to nil31%
Dortmund to score 226%
Dortmund to score 123%
Winning margin — Dortmund by 121%
Winning margin — Draw21%
Winning margin — Dortmund by 220%
Villarreal to score 219%
Winning margin — Dortmund by 313%
Correct score 2-110%
Dortmund to score 010%
Villarreal clean sheet10%
Correct score 2-09%
Correct score 1-19%
Winning margin — Villarreal by 19%
Villarreal to score 3+9%
Correct score 3-18%
Correct score 3-07%
Correct score 1-07%
Winning margin — Dortmund by 47%
Villarreal win to nil5%
Correct score 2-25%
Correct score 0-05%
Winning margin — Dortmund by 5+5%
Correct score 4-14%
Correct score 4-04%
Winning margin — Villarreal by 24%
Winning margin — Villarreal by 31%
Winning margin — Villarreal by 40%
Winning margin — Villarreal by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals84%
Dortmund to win either half75%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals75%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals60%
1st Half result — Dortmund48%
Half with most goals — 2nd45%
Dortmund to score in both halves42%
HT/FT Dortmund / Dortmund42%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals40%
1st Half result — Draw37%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
Villarreal to win either half30%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals25%
Dortmund to win both halves25%
Half with most goals — Equal24%
HT/FT Draw / Dortmund19%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals16%
1st Half result — Villarreal16%
Villarreal to score in both halves14%
HT/FT Draw / Draw12%
HT/FT Villarreal / Villarreal9%
HT/FT Draw / Villarreal6%
HT/FT Villarreal / Draw4%
HT/FT Dortmund / Draw4%
HT/FT Villarreal / Dortmund3%
Villarreal to win both halves3%
HT/FT Dortmund / Villarreal1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Dortmund +2.599%
Handicap — Dortmund +1.595%
Handicap — Dortmund +0.586%
Handicap — Villarreal -2.576%
Handicap — Dortmund -0.565%
Handicap — Villarreal -1.556%
Handicap — Dortmund -1.544%
Handicap — Villarreal -0.535%
Handicap — Dortmund -2.524%
Handicap — Villarreal +0.514%
Handicap — Villarreal +1.55%
Handicap — Villarreal +2.51%