N Osaka v Mertens
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Tennis·Women's US Open 2026· 2026-09-05 · 23:00

N Osaka v Mertens

Recommended bet
Naomi Osaka
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability72%
Implied (with margin)72%
Model edge-1.0%
Odds1.38 4/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
N Osaka72%
Mertens28%
$35,021 liquidity · $1,406 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Mertens double-faults on 6% of serve points vs N Osaka's 4%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
N Osaka to win59%1.70—
Mertens to win41%2.43—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Naomi Osaka72%1.38—
Elise Mertens28%3.50—