Carlos Alcaraz v Al Michelsen
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Tennis·ATP Tokyo 2026· 2026-10-01 · 06:00

Carlos Alcaraz v Al Michelsen

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)83%
Model edge-2.3%
Odds1.20 1/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz84%
Al Michelsen17%
$58,727 liquidity · $2,324 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Al Michelsen's 80%
  • Al Michelsen wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 57%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Al Michelsen's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win77%1.30—
Al Michelsen to win23%4.33—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz83%1.20—
Alex Michelsen17%5.70—