Carlos Alcaraz v Arnaldi
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Carlos Alcaraz v Arnaldi
Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability92%
Implied (with margin)94%
Model edge-2.4%
Odds1.06 1/16
Why the model leans this way
- Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Arnaldi's 77%
- Arnaldi wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
- Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Arnaldi's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win85%1.18—
Arnaldi to win15%6.46—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz94%1.06—
Matteo Arnaldi6%17.00—