Carlos Alcaraz v Shapovalov
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Tennis·ATP Tokyo 2026· 2026-10-04 · 04:00

Carlos Alcaraz v Shapovalov

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability86%
Implied (with margin)89%
Model edge-3.4%
Odds1.12 1/8
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz88%
Shapovalov13%
$16,465 liquidity · $391 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Shapovalov's 80%
  • Shapovalov wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Carlos Alcaraz's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win79%1.27—
Shapovalov to win21%4.72—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz88%1.12—
Denis Shapovalov12%8.60—