Fearnley v Carreno Busta
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Tennis·ATP Vienna 2026· 2026-10-24 · 08:00

Fearnley v Carreno Busta

Recommended bet
Jacob Fearnley
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability66%
Implied (with margin)91%
Model edge-27.3%
Odds1.10 1/10
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Fearnley57%
Carreno Busta43%
$1,980 liquidity · $40 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Fearnley wins only 47% of 2nd-serve points (Carreno Busta: 53%)
  • Fearnley double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Carreno Busta's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carreno Busta to win64%1.55—
Fearnley to win36%2.80—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Jacob Fearnley66%1.10—
Pablo Carreno Busta34%2.14—