Basilashvili v Carlos Alcaraz
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Tennis·ATP Vienna 2026· 2026-10-29 · 14:00

Basilashvili v Carlos Alcaraz

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
Best price at Betfair ExchangeHigh
Win probability87%
Implied (with margin)88%
Model edge-2.0%
Odds1.13 2/15
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Basilashvili12%
Carlos Alcaraz88%
$2,814 liquidity · $22 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Basilashvili's 81%
  • Basilashvili wins only 49% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Basilashvili double-faults on 5% of serve points vs Carlos Alcaraz's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win84%1.18—
Basilashvili to win16%6.41—
MarketsProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz88%1.13—
Nikoloz Basilashvili12%8.00—