Ecuador v Germany
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Ecuador v Germany
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability76%
Implied (with margin)76%
Model edge—
Odds1.32 1/3
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Ecuador20%
Draw26%
Germany56%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Germany43%1.76—
Match Winner — Draw29%3.92—
Match Winner — Ecuador28%5.00—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 2.5 goals51%1.99—
Over 2.5 goals49%1.90—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Germany or Draw72%——
Double chance — Ecuador or Germany71%——
Draw no bet — Germany60%——
Double chance — Ecuador or Draw58%——
Germany to win43%——
Draw no bet — Ecuador40%——
Draw29%——
Ecuador to win29%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%——
Over 0.5 goals91%——
Under 4.5 goals87%——
Over 1.5 goals76%——
Under 3.5 goals73%——
BTTS — Yes55%——
Under 2.5 goals51%——
Over 2.5 goals49%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS — No45%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.541%——
Over 3.5 goals27%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals25%——
Under 1.5 goals24%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.514%——
Over 4.5 goals13%——
Under 0.5 goals9%——
Over 5.5 goals5%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Ecuador to score 136%——
Both score no draw34%——
Germany to score 134%——
Ecuador to score 031%——
Germany clean sheet31%——
Winning margin — Draw29%——
Germany to score 225%——
Germany to score 023%——
Ecuador clean sheet23%——
Germany win to nil22%——
Ecuador to score 221%——
Winning margin — Germany by 121%——
Germany to score 3+18%——
Winning margin — Ecuador by 116%——
Ecuador win to nil14%——
Correct score 1-114%——
Winning margin — Germany by 213%——
Ecuador to score 3+11%——
Correct score 1-29%——
Correct score 0-19%——
Correct score 0-09%——
Winning margin — Ecuador by 28%——
Correct score 0-28%——
Correct score 2-17%——
Correct score 1-07%——
Winning margin — Germany by 36%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Correct score 2-05%——
Correct score 1-34%——
Winning margin — Ecuador by 33%——
Winning margin — Germany by 42%——
Winning margin — Ecuador by 41%——
Winning margin — Germany by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Ecuador by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals92%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals73%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals64%——
Germany to win either half54%——
1st Half result — Draw46%——
Ecuador to win either half42%——
Half with most goals — 2nd41%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals36%——
1st Half result — Germany31%——
Half with most goals — 1st30%——
Half with most goals — Equal29%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals27%——
HT/FT Germany / Germany25%——
1st Half result — Ecuador23%——
Germany to score in both halves22%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw19%——
HT/FT Ecuador / Ecuador16%——
HT/FT Draw / Germany16%——
Ecuador to score in both halves15%——
HT/FT Draw / Ecuador12%——
Germany to win both halves11%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals8%——
Ecuador to win both halves6%——
HT/FT Germany / Draw5%——
HT/FT Ecuador / Draw5%——
HT/FT Ecuador / Germany2%——
HT/FT Germany / Ecuador1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Germany -2.596%——
Handicap — Ecuador +2.592%——
Handicap — Germany -1.588%——
Handicap — Ecuador +1.578%——
Handicap — Germany -0.572%——
Handicap — Ecuador +0.558%——
Handicap — Germany +0.543%——
Handicap — Ecuador -0.529%——
Handicap — Germany +1.522%——
Handicap — Ecuador -1.512%——
Handicap — Germany +2.58%——
Handicap — Ecuador -2.54%——