Netherlands v Japan
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Netherlands v Japan
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.27 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Netherlands49%
Draw27%
Japan26%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Japan45%3.98—
Match Winner — Netherlands28%2.07—
Match Winner — Draw28%3.70—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals54%2.02—
Under 2.5 goals46%1.96—
Over 2 goals—1.47—
Under 2 goals—2.80—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Netherlands or Japan72%——
Double chance — Japan or Draw72%——
Draw no bet — Japan62%——
Double chance — Netherlands or Draw55%——
Japan to win45%——
Draw no bet — Netherlands38%——
Netherlands to win28%——
Draw28%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals68%——
BTTS — Yes58%——
Over 2.5 goals54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%——
BTTS — No42%——
Over 3.5 goals32%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
Netherlands to score 136%——
Japan to score 132%——
Netherlands to score 029%——
Japan clean sheet29%——
Winning margin — Draw28%——
Japan to score 226%——
Netherlands to score 222%——
Japan to score 3+22%——
Japan win to nil22%——
Winning margin — Japan by 121%——
Japan to score 020%——
Netherlands clean sheet20%——
Winning margin — Netherlands by 116%——
Winning margin — Japan by 214%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Netherlands to score 3+13%——
Netherlands win to nil13%——
Correct score 1-29%——
Winning margin — Netherlands by 28%——
Correct score 0-18%——
Correct score 0-28%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Correct score 2-17%——
Winning margin — Japan by 37%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 1-06%——
Correct score 1-35%——
Correct score 2-04%——
Winning margin — Netherlands by 33%——
Winning margin — Japan by 42%——
Winning margin — Japan by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Netherlands by 41%——
Winning margin — Netherlands by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals85%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals73%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals62%——
Japan to win either half61%——
Netherlands to win either half45%——
Half with most goals — 2nd44%——
1st Half result — Draw40%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals38%——
1st Half result — Japan36%——
Japan to score in both halves32%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
HT/FT Japan / Japan29%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals27%——
1st Half result — Netherlands25%——
Half with most goals — Equal24%——
Netherlands to score in both halves22%——
HT/FT Netherlands / Netherlands17%——
HT/FT Draw / Japan15%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals15%——
Japan to win both halves14%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw14%——
HT/FT Draw / Netherlands10%——
Netherlands to win both halves7%——
HT/FT Japan / Draw5%——
HT/FT Netherlands / Draw5%——
HT/FT Netherlands / Japan3%——
HT/FT Japan / Netherlands2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Japan -2.596%——
Handicap — Netherlands +2.590%——
Handicap — Japan -1.588%——
Handicap — Netherlands +1.576%——
Handicap — Japan -0.572%——
Handicap — Netherlands +0.555%——
Handicap — Japan +0.545%——
Handicap — Netherlands -0.528%——
Handicap — Japan +1.524%——
Handicap — Netherlands -1.512%——
Handicap — Japan +2.510%——
Handicap — Netherlands -2.54%——