Netherlands v Japan
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Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-14 · 20:00

Netherlands v Japan

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge
Odds1.27 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Netherlands49%
Draw27%
Japan26%
$385,164 liquidity · $958,403 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Japan45%3.98
Match Winner — Netherlands28%2.07
Match Winner — Draw28%3.70
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals54%2.02
Under 2.5 goals46%1.96
Over 2 goals1.47
Under 2 goals2.80
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Netherlands or Japan72%
Double chance — Japan or Draw72%
Draw no bet — Japan62%
Double chance — Netherlands or Draw55%
Japan to win45%
Draw no bet — Netherlands38%
Netherlands to win28%
Draw28%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 4.5 goals84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals68%
BTTS — Yes58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%
BTTS — No42%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%
Under 1.5 goals21%
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%
Over 4.5 goals16%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Over 5.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%
Netherlands to score 136%
Japan to score 132%
Netherlands to score 029%
Japan clean sheet29%
Winning margin — Draw28%
Japan to score 226%
Netherlands to score 222%
Japan to score 3+22%
Japan win to nil22%
Winning margin — Japan by 121%
Japan to score 020%
Netherlands clean sheet20%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 116%
Winning margin — Japan by 214%
Correct score 1-113%
Netherlands to score 3+13%
Netherlands win to nil13%
Correct score 1-29%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 28%
Correct score 0-18%
Correct score 0-28%
Correct score 0-07%
Correct score 2-17%
Winning margin — Japan by 37%
Correct score 2-26%
Correct score 1-06%
Correct score 1-35%
Correct score 2-04%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 33%
Winning margin — Japan by 42%
Winning margin — Japan by 5+1%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 41%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals85%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals73%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals62%
Japan to win either half61%
Netherlands to win either half45%
Half with most goals — 2nd44%
1st Half result — Draw40%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals38%
1st Half result — Japan36%
Japan to score in both halves32%
Half with most goals — 1st31%
HT/FT Japan / Japan29%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals27%
1st Half result — Netherlands25%
Half with most goals — Equal24%
Netherlands to score in both halves22%
HT/FT Netherlands / Netherlands17%
HT/FT Draw / Japan15%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals15%
Japan to win both halves14%
HT/FT Draw / Draw14%
HT/FT Draw / Netherlands10%
Netherlands to win both halves7%
HT/FT Japan / Draw5%
HT/FT Netherlands / Draw5%
HT/FT Netherlands / Japan3%
HT/FT Japan / Netherlands2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Japan -2.596%
Handicap — Netherlands +2.590%
Handicap — Japan -1.588%
Handicap — Netherlands +1.576%
Handicap — Japan -0.572%
Handicap — Netherlands +0.555%
Handicap — Japan +0.545%
Handicap — Netherlands -0.528%
Handicap — Japan +1.524%
Handicap — Netherlands -1.512%
Handicap — Japan +2.510%
Handicap — Netherlands -2.54%