Netherlands v Sweden
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Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-20 · 17:00

Netherlands v Sweden

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)81%
Model edge
Odds1.23 2/9
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Netherlands60%
Draw24%
Sweden18%
$17,565 liquidity · $9,882 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Netherlands56%1.69
Match Winner — Draw25%4.20
Match Winner — Sweden20%5.60
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals57%2.00
Under 2.5 goals43%1.92
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Netherlands or Draw81%
Double chance — Netherlands or Sweden75%
Draw no bet — Netherlands74%
Netherlands to win56%
Double chance — Sweden or Draw44%
Draw no bet — Sweden26%
Draw25%
Sweden to win20%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals94%
Under 5.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals82%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Under 3.5 goals65%
BTTS — Yes57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Goals range — 2-3 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.546%
Under 2.5 goals43%
BTTS — No43%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Goals range — 4-6 goals32%
Under 1.5 goals19%
Goals range — 0-1 goals19%
Over 4.5 goals18%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.512%
Over 5.5 goals8%
Under 0.5 goals6%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw39%
Sweden to score 137%
Sweden to score 034%
Netherlands clean sheet34%
Netherlands to score 3+30%
Netherlands to score 128%
Netherlands win to nil28%
Netherlands to score 227%
Winning margin — Draw25%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 122%
Sweden to score 220%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 217%
Netherlands to score 015%
Sweden clean sheet15%
Winning margin — Sweden by 112%
Correct score 1-112%
Correct score 2-110%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 310%
Correct score 2-09%
Sweden to score 3+9%
Correct score 1-08%
Sweden win to nil8%
Correct score 0-06%
Correct score 3-16%
Correct score 3-06%
Correct score 1-26%
Winning margin — Sweden by 26%
Correct score 2-25%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 44%
Correct score 0-14%
Winning margin — Netherlands by 5+2%
Winning margin — Sweden by 32%
Winning margin — Sweden by 40%
Winning margin — Sweden by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals80%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals78%
Netherlands to win either half72%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals55%
Half with most goals — 2nd46%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals45%
1st Half result — Netherlands45%
Netherlands to score in both halves44%
HT/FT Netherlands / Netherlands39%
Sweden to win either half37%
1st Half result — Draw35%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
Half with most goals — Equal22%
Netherlands to win both halves22%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals22%
Sweden to score in both halves21%
1st Half result — Sweden20%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals20%
HT/FT Draw / Netherlands17%
HT/FT Sweden / Sweden12%
HT/FT Draw / Draw11%
HT/FT Draw / Sweden7%
HT/FT Sweden / Draw5%
HT/FT Netherlands / Draw5%
Sweden to win both halves4%
HT/FT Sweden / Netherlands4%
HT/FT Netherlands / Sweden2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Netherlands +2.598%
Handicap — Netherlands +1.592%
Handicap — Sweden -2.584%
Handicap — Netherlands +0.581%
Handicap — Sweden -1.567%
Handicap — Netherlands -0.556%
Handicap — Sweden -0.544%
Handicap — Netherlands -1.533%
Handicap — Sweden +0.520%
Handicap — Netherlands -2.516%
Handicap — Sweden +1.58%
Handicap — Sweden +2.52%