Japan v Sweden
Back to board
Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-25 · 23:00

Japan v Sweden

Recommended bet
Japan or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability86%
Implied (with margin)86%
Model edge
Odds1.16 1/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Japan47%
Draw28%
Sweden27%
$18,079 liquidity · $6,496 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Japan63%2.15
Match Winner — Draw23%3.53
Match Winner — Sweden14%3.75
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals56%2.14
Under 2.5 goals44%1.76
Over 2.25 goals1.83
Under 2.25 goals2.04
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Japan or Draw86%
Draw no bet — Japan82%
Double chance — Japan or Sweden77%
Japan to win63%
Double chance — Sweden or Draw37%
Draw23%
Draw no bet — Sweden18%
Sweden to win14%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 5.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals83%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals56%
BTTS — Yes52%
BTTS — No48%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals44%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.541%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Goals range — 4-6 goals31%
Under 1.5 goals20%
Goals range — 0-1 goals20%
Over 4.5 goals17%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.511%
Over 5.5 goals8%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Sweden to score 042%
Japan clean sheet42%
Sweden to score 137%
Both score no draw36%
Japan win to nil35%
Japan to score 3+34%
Japan to score 227%
Japan to score 126%
Winning margin — Japan by 123%
Winning margin — Draw23%
Winning margin — Japan by 220%
Sweden to score 216%
Japan to score 013%
Sweden clean sheet13%
Winning margin — Japan by 312%
Correct score 2-011%
Correct score 1-111%
Correct score 2-110%
Correct score 1-010%
Winning margin — Sweden by 19%
Correct score 3-08%
Correct score 3-17%
Correct score 0-07%
Sweden win to nil6%
Sweden to score 3+6%
Winning margin — Japan by 46%
Correct score 2-24%
Correct score 1-24%
Correct score 4-04%
Winning margin — Sweden by 24%
Winning margin — Japan by 5+3%
Winning margin — Sweden by 31%
Winning margin — Sweden by 40%
Winning margin — Sweden by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals82%
Japan to win either half77%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals76%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals58%
1st Half result — Japan49%
Half with most goals — 2nd45%
Japan to score in both halves45%
HT/FT Japan / Japan44%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals42%
1st Half result — Draw35%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
Sweden to win either half29%
Japan to win both halves27%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals24%
Half with most goals — Equal23%
HT/FT Draw / Japan19%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals18%
1st Half result — Sweden16%
Sweden to score in both halves14%
HT/FT Draw / Draw11%
HT/FT Sweden / Sweden8%
HT/FT Draw / Sweden6%
HT/FT Sweden / Draw4%
HT/FT Japan / Draw4%
HT/FT Sweden / Japan3%
Sweden to win both halves3%
HT/FT Japan / Sweden1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Japan +2.599%
Handicap — Japan +1.595%
Handicap — Japan +0.586%
Handicap — Sweden -2.579%
Handicap — Japan -0.563%
Handicap — Sweden -1.560%
Handicap — Japan -1.540%
Handicap — Sweden -0.537%
Handicap — Japan -2.521%
Handicap — Sweden +0.514%
Handicap — Sweden +1.55%
Handicap — Sweden +2.51%