Uruguay v Spain
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Football·FIFA World Cup· 2026-06-27 · 00:00

Uruguay v Spain

Recommended bet
Spain or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability80%
Implied (with margin)80%
Model edge
Odds1.25 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Uruguay18%
Draw25%
Spain60%
$12,092 liquidity · $10,519 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Spain53%1.68
Match Winner — Draw27%4.02
Match Winner — Uruguay20%5.95
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 2.5 goals50%1.93
Over 2.5 goals50%1.93
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Spain or Draw80%
Double chance — Uruguay or Spain73%
Draw no bet — Spain72%
Spain to win53%
Double chance — Uruguay or Draw48%
Draw no bet — Uruguay28%
Draw27%
Uruguay to win20%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%
Over 0.5 goals92%
Under 4.5 goals87%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals72%
BTTS — Yes52%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%
BTTS — No48%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.539%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Goals range — 4-6 goals26%
Under 1.5 goals24%
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals13%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Under 0.5 goals9%
Over 5.5 goals5%
Goals range — 7+ goals2%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Uruguay to score 038%
Spain clean sheet38%
Uruguay to score 137%
Both score no draw34%
Spain to score 131%
Spain win to nil29%
Winning margin — Draw27%
Spain to score 226%
Spain to score 3+24%
Winning margin — Spain by 123%
Spain to score 019%
Uruguay clean sheet19%
Uruguay to score 218%
Winning margin — Spain by 217%
Correct score 1-113%
Winning margin — Uruguay by 113%
Correct score 0-110%
Uruguay win to nil10%
Correct score 0-210%
Correct score 1-210%
Correct score 0-09%
Winning margin — Spain by 38%
Uruguay to score 3+8%
Correct score 2-16%
Correct score 0-36%
Winning margin — Uruguay by 26%
Correct score 1-35%
Correct score 1-05%
Correct score 2-25%
Winning margin — Spain by 43%
Winning margin — Uruguay by 32%
Winning margin — Spain by 5+1%
Winning margin — Uruguay by 40%
Winning margin — Uruguay by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals91%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals72%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals65%
Spain to win either half63%
1st Half result — Draw45%
Half with most goals — 2nd42%
1st Half result — Spain37%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals35%
Uruguay to win either half35%
HT/FT Spain / Spain31%
Half with most goals — 1st30%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals28%
Half with most goals — Equal28%
Spain to score in both halves27%
1st Half result — Uruguay18%
HT/FT Draw / Spain18%
HT/FT Draw / Draw18%
Spain to win both halves15%
Uruguay to score in both halves12%
HT/FT Uruguay / Uruguay12%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals9%
HT/FT Draw / Uruguay9%
HT/FT Spain / Draw4%
HT/FT Uruguay / Draw4%
Uruguay to win both halves4%
HT/FT Uruguay / Spain2%
HT/FT Spain / Uruguay1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Spain -2.598%
Handicap — Spain -1.592%
Handicap — Uruguay +2.587%
Handicap — Spain -0.580%
Handicap — Uruguay +1.571%
Handicap — Spain +0.553%
Handicap — Uruguay +0.548%
Handicap — Spain +1.530%
Handicap — Uruguay -0.520%
Handicap — Spain +2.513%
Handicap — Uruguay -1.58%
Handicap — Uruguay -2.52%