Uruguay v Spain
Back to board
Uruguay v Spain
Recommended bet
Spain or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability80%
Implied (with margin)80%
Model edge—
Odds1.25 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Uruguay18%
Draw25%
Spain60%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Spain53%1.68—
Match Winner — Draw27%4.02—
Match Winner — Uruguay20%5.95—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 2.5 goals50%1.93—
Over 2.5 goals50%1.93—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Spain or Draw80%——
Double chance — Uruguay or Spain73%——
Draw no bet — Spain72%——
Spain to win53%——
Double chance — Uruguay or Draw48%——
Draw no bet — Uruguay28%——
Draw27%——
Uruguay to win20%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%——
Over 0.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals87%——
Over 1.5 goals76%——
Under 3.5 goals72%——
BTTS — Yes52%——
Under 2.5 goals51%——
Over 2.5 goals50%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS — No48%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.539%——
Over 3.5 goals28%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals26%——
Under 1.5 goals24%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%——
Over 4.5 goals13%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals9%——
Over 5.5 goals5%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Uruguay to score 038%——
Spain clean sheet38%——
Uruguay to score 137%——
Both score no draw34%——
Spain to score 131%——
Spain win to nil29%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
Spain to score 226%——
Spain to score 3+24%——
Winning margin — Spain by 123%——
Spain to score 019%——
Uruguay clean sheet19%——
Uruguay to score 218%——
Winning margin — Spain by 217%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — Uruguay by 113%——
Correct score 0-110%——
Uruguay win to nil10%——
Correct score 0-210%——
Correct score 1-210%——
Correct score 0-09%——
Winning margin — Spain by 38%——
Uruguay to score 3+8%——
Correct score 2-16%——
Correct score 0-36%——
Winning margin — Uruguay by 26%——
Correct score 1-35%——
Correct score 1-05%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Winning margin — Spain by 43%——
Winning margin — Uruguay by 32%——
Winning margin — Spain by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Uruguay by 40%——
Winning margin — Uruguay by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals91%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals72%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals65%——
Spain to win either half63%——
1st Half result — Draw45%——
Half with most goals — 2nd42%——
1st Half result — Spain37%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals35%——
Uruguay to win either half35%——
HT/FT Spain / Spain31%——
Half with most goals — 1st30%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals28%——
Half with most goals — Equal28%——
Spain to score in both halves27%——
1st Half result — Uruguay18%——
HT/FT Draw / Spain18%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw18%——
Spain to win both halves15%——
Uruguay to score in both halves12%——
HT/FT Uruguay / Uruguay12%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals9%——
HT/FT Draw / Uruguay9%——
HT/FT Spain / Draw4%——
HT/FT Uruguay / Draw4%——
Uruguay to win both halves4%——
HT/FT Uruguay / Spain2%——
HT/FT Spain / Uruguay1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Spain -2.598%——
Handicap — Spain -1.592%——
Handicap — Uruguay +2.587%——
Handicap — Spain -0.580%——
Handicap — Uruguay +1.571%——
Handicap — Spain +0.553%——
Handicap — Uruguay +0.548%——
Handicap — Spain +1.530%——
Handicap — Uruguay -0.520%——
Handicap — Spain +2.513%——
Handicap — Uruguay -1.58%——
Handicap — Uruguay -2.52%——