France v Iraq
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France v Iraq
Recommended bet
France or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.27 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
France88%
Draw10%
Iraq3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — France52%1.15—
Match Winner — Draw27%10.00—
Match Winner — Iraq21%30.00—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals72%1.67—
Over 2.5 goals50%1.44—
Under 2.5 goals50%2.50—
Over 3.5 goals28%2.27—
Over 3 goals—1.81—
Under 3 goals—2.08—
Over 3.25 goals—2.00—
Under 3.25 goals—1.83—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — France or Draw79%——
Double chance — France or Iraq73%——
Draw no bet — France71%——
France to win52%——
Double chance — Iraq or Draw48%——
Draw no bet — Iraq29%——
Draw27%——
Iraq to win21%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%——
Over 0.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals87%——
Over 1.5 goals76%——
Under 3.5 goals72%——
BTTS — Yes53%——
Over 2.5 goals50%——
Under 2.5 goals50%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS — No47%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.540%——
Over 3.5 goals28%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals26%——
Under 1.5 goals24%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%——
Over 4.5 goals13%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals8%——
Over 5.5 goals6%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Iraq to score 137%——
Iraq to score 037%——
France clean sheet37%——
Both score no draw34%——
France to score 131%——
France win to nil28%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
France to score 226%——
France to score 3+24%——
Winning margin — France by 123%——
France to score 019%——
Iraq clean sheet19%——
Iraq to score 218%——
Winning margin — France by 216%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — Iraq by 113%——
Iraq win to nil10%——
Correct score 1-010%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Correct score 2-010%——
Correct score 0-08%——
Iraq to score 3+8%——
Winning margin — France by 38%——
Correct score 1-26%——
Winning margin — Iraq by 26%——
Correct score 0-15%——
Correct score 3-15%——
Correct score 3-05%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Winning margin — France by 43%——
Winning margin — Iraq by 32%——
Winning margin — France by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Iraq by 40%——
Winning margin — Iraq by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals91%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals71%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals66%——
France to win either half62%——
1st Half result — Draw44%——
Half with most goals — 2nd42%——
1st Half result — France37%——
Iraq to win either half36%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals34%——
HT/FT France / France31%——
Half with most goals — 1st30%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals29%——
Half with most goals — Equal28%——
France to score in both halves27%——
1st Half result — Iraq19%——
HT/FT Draw / France18%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw17%——
France to win both halves15%——
Iraq to score in both halves13%——
HT/FT Iraq / Iraq12%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals9%——
HT/FT Draw / Iraq9%——
HT/FT Iraq / Draw5%——
HT/FT France / Draw5%——
Iraq to win both halves4%——
HT/FT Iraq / France2%——
HT/FT France / Iraq1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — France +2.598%——
Handicap — France +1.592%——
Handicap — Iraq -2.588%——
Handicap — France +0.579%——
Handicap — Iraq -1.571%——
Handicap — France -0.552%——
Handicap — Iraq -0.548%——
Handicap — France -1.529%——
Handicap — Iraq +0.521%——
Handicap — France -2.513%——
Handicap — Iraq +1.58%——
Handicap — Iraq +2.52%——