England v Croatia
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England v Croatia
Recommended bet
England or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.27 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
England56%
Draw26%
Croatia19%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — England52%1.77—
Match Winner — Draw27%3.90—
Match Winner — Croatia21%5.40—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals51%2.26—
Under 2.5 goals49%1.79—
Over 2.25 goals—1.93—
Under 2.25 goals—1.96—
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — England or Draw79%——
Double chance — England or Croatia73%——
Draw no bet — England71%——
England to win52%——
Double chance — Croatia or Draw49%——
Draw no bet — Croatia29%——
Draw27%——
Croatia to win21%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals94%——
Over 0.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals86%——
Over 1.5 goals77%——
Under 3.5 goals71%——
BTTS — Yes54%——
Over 2.5 goals51%——
Under 2.5 goals49%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS — No47%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.541%——
Over 3.5 goals29%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals27%——
Under 1.5 goals23%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals23%——
Over 4.5 goals14%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals8%——
Over 5.5 goals6%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Croatia to score 137%——
Croatia to score 036%——
England clean sheet36%——
Both score no draw35%——
England to score 131%——
England win to nil28%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
England to score 226%——
England to score 3+24%——
Winning margin — England by 123%——
Croatia to score 219%——
England to score 019%——
Croatia clean sheet19%——
Winning margin — England by 216%——
Winning margin — Croatia by 113%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Croatia win to nil10%——
Correct score 1-010%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Correct score 2-010%——
Croatia to score 3+8%——
Correct score 0-08%——
Winning margin — England by 38%——
Winning margin — Croatia by 26%——
Correct score 1-26%——
Correct score 3-15%——
Correct score 3-05%——
Correct score 0-15%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Winning margin — England by 43%——
Winning margin — Croatia by 32%——
Winning margin — England by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Croatia by 40%——
Winning margin — Croatia by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals90%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals69%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals67%——
England to win either half63%——
1st Half result — Draw43%——
Half with most goals — 2nd43%——
1st Half result — England37%——
Croatia to win either half36%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals33%——
HT/FT England / England32%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals31%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
England to score in both halves29%——
Half with most goals — Equal27%——
1st Half result — Croatia20%——
HT/FT Draw / England18%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw16%——
England to win both halves15%——
Croatia to score in both halves14%——
HT/FT Croatia / Croatia13%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals10%——
HT/FT Draw / Croatia9%——
HT/FT Croatia / Draw5%——
HT/FT England / Draw5%——
Croatia to win both halves4%——
HT/FT Croatia / England2%——
HT/FT England / Croatia1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — England +2.598%——
Handicap — England +1.592%——
Handicap — Croatia -2.587%——
Handicap — England +0.579%——
Handicap — Croatia -1.571%——
Handicap — England -0.552%——
Handicap — Croatia -0.549%——
Handicap — England -1.529%——
Handicap — Croatia +0.521%——
Handicap — England -2.513%——
Handicap — Croatia +1.58%——
Handicap — Croatia +2.52%——