AFC Ajax v SBV Excelsior
Back to board
Football·Eredivisie· 2026-09-19 · 18:00

AFC Ajax v SBV Excelsior

Recommended bet
AFC Ajax or SBV Excelsior
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability78%
Implied (with margin)78%
Model edge
Odds1.28 2/7
All markets
Model-only estimates · 104 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — AFC Ajax or SBV Excelsior78%
Double chance — SBV Excelsior or Draw70%
Draw no bet — SBV Excelsior62%
Double chance — AFC Ajax or Draw52%
SBV Excelsior to win48%
Draw no bet — AFC Ajax38%
AFC Ajax to win30%
Draw22%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals97%
Over 1.5 goals92%
Under 5.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals77%
BTTS — Yes75%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.567%
Under 4.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Goals range — 4-6 goals46%
Under 3.5 goals43%
Over 4.5 goals38%
Goals range — 2-3 goals35%
BTTS — No25%
Under 2.5 goals24%
Over 5.5 goals22%
Goals range — 7+ goals11%
Under 1.5 goals8%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.58%
Goals range — 0-1 goals8%
Under 0.5 goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw56%
SBV Excelsior to score 3+39%
AFC Ajax to score 130%
AFC Ajax to score 227%
SBV Excelsior to score 227%
AFC Ajax to score 3+26%
SBV Excelsior to score 124%
Winning margin — Draw22%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 119%
AFC Ajax to score 017%
SBV Excelsior clean sheet17%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 215%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 114%
SBV Excelsior win to nil14%
SBV Excelsior to score 011%
AFC Ajax clean sheet11%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 29%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 39%
Correct score 1-18%
Correct score 1-28%
AFC Ajax win to nil8%
Correct score 2-27%
Correct score 2-16%
Correct score 1-36%
Correct score 2-35%
Correct score 0-25%
Correct score 3-24%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 34%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 44%
Correct score 3-14%
Correct score 0-33%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 5+3%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 42%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 5+1%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Over 0.5 goals82%
1st Half Under 2.5 goals75%
SBV Excelsior to win either half65%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals52%
AFC Ajax to win either half48%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals48%
Half with most goals — 2nd47%
SBV Excelsior to score in both halves43%
1st Half result — SBV Excelsior39%
1st Half result — Draw33%
AFC Ajax to score in both halves32%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / SBV Excelsior31%
1st Half result — AFC Ajax28%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals25%
Half with most goals — Equal21%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / AFC Ajax18%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals18%
SBV Excelsior to win both halves16%
HT/FT Draw / SBV Excelsior14%
HT/FT Draw / Draw10%
HT/FT Draw / AFC Ajax10%
AFC Ajax to win both halves8%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / Draw5%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / Draw5%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / SBV Excelsior4%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / AFC Ajax3%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -2.594%
Handicap — AFC Ajax +2.585%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -1.585%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -0.570%
Handicap — AFC Ajax +1.570%
Handicap — AFC Ajax +0.552%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +0.548%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +1.530%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -0.530%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -1.515%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +2.515%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -2.56%
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Anytime scorer — David Garden (SBV Excelsior)49%
Anytime scorer — Toluwalas Arokodare (AFC Ajax)39%
Anytime scorer — Irakli Yegoian (SBV Excelsior)36%