AFC Ajax v SBV Excelsior
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Football·Eredivisie· 2026-09-19 · 18:00

AFC Ajax v SBV Excelsior

Recommended bet
AFC Ajax or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability82%
Implied (with margin)82%
Model edge
Odds1.22 2/9
All markets
Model-only estimates · 101 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — AFC Ajax or Draw82%
Draw no bet — AFC Ajax76%
Double chance — AFC Ajax or SBV Excelsior73%
AFC Ajax to win55%
Double chance — SBV Excelsior or Draw45%
Draw28%
Draw no bet — SBV Excelsior25%
SBV Excelsior to win18%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals96%
Over 0.5 goals90%
Under 4.5 goals89%
Under 3.5 goals76%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Under 2.5 goals54%
BTTS — No52%
Goals range — 2-3 goals49%
BTTS — Yes48%
Over 2.5 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.535%
Under 1.5 goals27%
Goals range — 0-1 goals27%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Goals range — 4-6 goals23%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Under 0.5 goals10%
Over 5.5 goals4%
Goals range — 7+ goals1%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
SBV Excelsior to score 043%
AFC Ajax clean sheet43%
SBV Excelsior to score 136%
AFC Ajax win to nil33%
AFC Ajax to score 132%
Both score no draw30%
Winning margin — Draw28%
AFC Ajax to score 226%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 124%
AFC Ajax to score 3+23%
AFC Ajax to score 019%
SBV Excelsior clean sheet19%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 217%
SBV Excelsior to score 216%
Correct score 1-113%
Correct score 1-012%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 112%
Correct score 2-011%
Correct score 0-010%
Correct score 2-110%
SBV Excelsior win to nil10%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 39%
Correct score 3-06%
Correct score 0-16%
SBV Excelsior to score 3+6%
Correct score 3-15%
Correct score 1-25%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 25%
Correct score 2-24%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 43%
Winning margin — AFC Ajax by 5+1%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 31%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 40%
Winning margin — SBV Excelsior by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals90%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals69%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals68%
AFC Ajax to win either half67%
Half with most goals — 2nd43%
1st Half result — Draw42%
1st Half result — AFC Ajax40%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / AFC Ajax35%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals33%
SBV Excelsior to win either half32%
AFC Ajax to score in both halves31%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals31%
Half with most goals — 1st31%
Half with most goals — Equal27%
HT/FT Draw / AFC Ajax19%
AFC Ajax to win both halves18%
1st Half result — SBV Excelsior17%
HT/FT Draw / Draw16%
SBV Excelsior to score in both halves12%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals11%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / SBV Excelsior11%
HT/FT Draw / SBV Excelsior8%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / Draw4%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / Draw4%
SBV Excelsior to win both halves3%
HT/FT SBV Excelsior / AFC Ajax3%
HT/FT AFC Ajax / SBV Excelsior1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — AFC Ajax +2.599%
Handicap — AFC Ajax +1.594%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -2.587%
Handicap — AFC Ajax +0.582%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -1.569%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -0.555%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior -0.545%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -1.531%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +0.518%
Handicap — AFC Ajax -2.513%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +1.56%
Handicap — SBV Excelsior +2.52%