Manchester City FC v AFC Bournemouth
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Manchester City FC v AFC Bournemouth
Recommended bet
Over 2.5
Match result
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability67%
Implied (with margin)69%
Model edge-3.5%
Odds1.44 4/9
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Manchester City FC68%
Draw19%
AFC Bournemouth14%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — AFC Bournemouth—6.75—
Match Winner — Manchester City FC—1.50—
Match Winner — Draw—5.30—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 3.25 goals—1.85—
Under 3.25 goals—1.98—
Over 3.5 goals—2.11—
Under 3.5 goals—1.84—
Over 2.5 goals—1.44—
Under 2.5 goals—2.90—
Model-only estimates · 24 markets
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Erling Haaland (Man City)51%——
Player anytime scorer — Erling Haaland (Man City)48%——
Player to score or assist — David Brooks (Bournemouth)44%——
Player to score or assist — Rayan Cherki (Man City)43%——
Player to score or assist — Phil Foden (Man City)32%——
Player to score or assist — Sávio Moreira de Oliveira (Man City)32%——
Player to score or assist — Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)31%——
Player anytime scorer — David Brooks (Bournemouth)31%——
Player to score or assist — Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth)28%——
Player to score or assist — Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth)27%——
Player anytime scorer — Omar Marmoush (Man City)26%——
Player anytime scorer — Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth)25%——
Player anytime scorer — Antoine Semenyo (Man City)23%——
Player anytime scorer — Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)22%——
Player anytime scorer — Sávio Moreira de Oliveira (Man City)21%——
Player anytime scorer — Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth)17%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — David Brooks (Bournemouth)36%——
Player carded — Justin Kluivert (Bournemouth)33%——
Player carded — Rico Lewis (Man City)31%——
Player carded — Tyler Adams (Bournemouth)29%——
Player carded — Omar Marmoush (Man City)28%——
Player carded — Nico González Iglesias (Man City)25%——
Player carded — Adam Smith (Bournemouth)19%——
Player carded — Sávio Moreira de Oliveira (Man City)17%——