Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Aston Villa FC
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Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Aston Villa FC
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.26 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Brighton & Hove Albion FC43%
Draw27%
Aston Villa FC33%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Aston Villa FC37%3.10—
Match Winner — Brighton & Hove Albion FC35%2.42—
Match Winner — Draw28%3.80—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals54%1.67—
Under 2.5 goals46%2.40—
Over 3 goals—2.00—
Under 3 goals—1.87—
Model-only estimates · 125 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Brighton & Hove Albion FC or Aston Villa FC72%——
Double chance — Aston Villa FC or Draw65%——
Double chance — Brighton & Hove Albion FC or Draw63%——
Draw no bet — Aston Villa FC51%——
Draw no bet — Brighton & Hove Albion FC49%——
Aston Villa FC to win37%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to win35%——
Draw28%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals68%——
BTTS — Yes59%——
Over 2.5 goals54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.546%——
BTTS — No41%——
Over 3.5 goals32%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to score 135%——
Aston Villa FC to score 134%——
Winning margin — Draw28%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to score 025%——
Aston Villa FC clean sheet25%——
Aston Villa FC to score 225%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to score 224%——
Aston Villa FC to score 024%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC clean sheet24%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 119%——
Winning margin — Brighton & Hove Albion FC by 118%——
Aston Villa FC to score 3+18%——
Aston Villa FC win to nil17%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to score 3+17%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win to nil16%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 211%——
Winning margin — Brighton & Hove Albion FC by 211%——
Correct score 1-29%——
Correct score 2-18%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Correct score 0-17%——
Correct score 1-07%——
Correct score 0-26%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 2-06%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 35%——
Winning margin — Brighton & Hove Albion FC by 34%——
Correct score 1-34%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 42%——
Winning margin — Brighton & Hove Albion FC by 41%——
Winning margin — Brighton & Hove Albion FC by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 5+1%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals72%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals64%——
Aston Villa FC to win either half53%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to win either half51%——
Half with most goals — 2nd44%——
1st Half result — Draw41%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals37%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
1st Half result — Aston Villa FC30%——
1st Half result — Brighton & Hove Albion FC29%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals28%——
Aston Villa FC to score in both halves26%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to score in both halves25%——
Half with most goals — Equal25%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Aston Villa FC23%——
HT/FT Brighton & Hove Albion FC / Brighton & Hove Albion FC22%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw15%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals14%——
HT/FT Draw / Aston Villa FC13%——
HT/FT Draw / Brighton & Hove Albion FC13%——
Aston Villa FC to win both halves10%——
Brighton & Hove Albion FC to win both halves9%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Brighton & Hove Albion FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Brighton & Hove Albion FC / Aston Villa FC2%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Brighton & Hove Albion FC2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -2.594%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC +2.593%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -1.583%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC +1.582%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -0.565%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC +0.563%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +0.537%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC -0.535%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +1.518%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC -1.517%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +2.57%——
Handicap — Brighton & Hove Albion FC -2.56%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa)48%——
Player to score or assist — Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)43%——
Player anytime scorer — Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa)42%——
Player anytime scorer — Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)36%——
Player to score or assist — Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)36%——
Player to score or assist — Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra (Aston Villa)35%——
Player anytime scorer — Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)34%——
Player to score or assist — Leon Bailey (Aston Villa)28%——
Player to score or assist — Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton)27%——
Player to score or assist — Diego Gómez Amarilla (Brighton)25%——
Player to score or assist — Yankuba Minteh (Brighton)24%——
Player anytime scorer — Diego Gómez Amarilla (Brighton)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra (Aston Villa)19%——
Player anytime scorer — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)13%——
Player anytime scorer — Georginio Rutter (Brighton)12%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)35%——
Player carded — Lamare Bogarde (Aston Villa)30%——
Player carded — Diego Gómez Amarilla (Brighton)27%——
Player carded — Mats Wieffer (Brighton)27%——
Player carded — Joao Gomes (Aston Villa)26%——
Player carded — Boubacar Kamara (Aston Villa)23%——
Player carded — Lewis Dunk (Brighton)23%——
Player carded — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)23%——