Newcastle United FC v Liverpool FC
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Newcastle United FC v Liverpool FC
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.26 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Newcastle United FC28%
Draw25%
Liverpool FC49%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Liverpool FC36%2.15—
Match Winner — Newcastle United FC35%3.50—
Match Winner — Draw28%4.01—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals68%1.73—
Over 2.5 goals54%1.50—
Under 2.5 goals46%2.65—
Over 3.5 goals32%2.28—
Over 3.25 goals—2.00—
Under 3.25 goals—1.84—
Over 3 goals—1.78—
Under 3 goals—2.16—
Model-only estimates · 125 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Liverpool FC72%——
Double chance — Liverpool FC or Draw65%——
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Draw64%——
Draw no bet — Liverpool FC51%——
Draw no bet — Newcastle United FC49%——
Liverpool FC to win37%——
Newcastle United FC to win35%——
Draw28%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals68%——
BTTS — Yes59%——
Over 2.5 goals54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.546%——
BTTS — No41%——
Over 3.5 goals32%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
Newcastle United FC to score 135%——
Liverpool FC to score 134%——
Winning margin — Draw28%——
Newcastle United FC to score 025%——
Liverpool FC to score 225%——
Liverpool FC clean sheet25%——
Newcastle United FC to score 224%——
Liverpool FC to score 024%——
Newcastle United FC clean sheet24%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 119%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 118%——
Liverpool FC to score 3+17%——
Liverpool FC win to nil17%——
Newcastle United FC to score 3+17%——
Newcastle United FC win to nil17%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 211%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 211%——
Correct score 1-28%——
Correct score 2-18%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Correct score 0-17%——
Correct score 1-07%——
Correct score 0-26%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 2-06%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 35%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 34%——
Correct score 1-34%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 42%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 41%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 5+1%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals72%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals64%——
Liverpool FC to win either half53%——
Newcastle United FC to win either half52%——
Half with most goals — 2nd44%——
1st Half result — Draw41%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals37%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
1st Half result — Liverpool FC30%——
1st Half result — Newcastle United FC29%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals28%——
Liverpool FC to score in both halves26%——
Newcastle United FC to score in both halves25%——
Half with most goals — Equal25%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Liverpool FC23%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Newcastle United FC22%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw15%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals14%——
HT/FT Draw / Liverpool FC13%——
HT/FT Draw / Newcastle United FC13%——
Liverpool FC to win both halves10%——
Newcastle United FC to win both halves9%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Liverpool FC2%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Newcastle United FC2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Liverpool FC -2.594%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +2.593%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC -1.583%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +1.582%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC -0.565%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +0.564%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC +0.537%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -0.535%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC +1.518%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -1.517%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC +2.57%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -2.56%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)41%——
Player to score or assist — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)38%——
Player to score or assist — William Osula (Newcastle)37%——
Player to score or assist — Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool)37%——
Player anytime scorer — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)36%——
Player anytime scorer — William Osula (Newcastle)33%——
Player to score or assist — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)31%——
Player to score or assist — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)31%——
Player to score or assist — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)30%——
Player anytime scorer — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)29%——
Player to score or assist — Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)27%——
Player anytime scorer — Alexander Isak (Liverpool)25%——
Player anytime scorer — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)23%——
Player anytime scorer — Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)23%——
Player anytime scorer — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)20%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)51%——
Player carded — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)35%——
Player carded — Joelinton Cássio Apolinário de Lira (Newcastle)32%——
Player carded — Dan Burn (Newcastle)27%——
Player carded — Joe Willock (Newcastle)21%——
Player carded — Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool)18%——
Player carded — Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)17%——
Player carded — Milos Kerkez (Liverpool)13%——