Newcastle United FC v Liverpool FC
Back to board
Football·Premier League· 2026-08-23 · 15:30

Newcastle United FC v Liverpool FC

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge
Odds1.26 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Newcastle United FC28%
Draw25%
Liverpool FC49%
$7,547 liquidity · $16,922 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Liverpool FC36%2.15
Match Winner — Newcastle United FC35%3.50
Match Winner — Draw28%4.01
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals68%1.73
Over 2.5 goals54%1.50
Under 2.5 goals46%2.65
Over 3.5 goals32%2.28
Over 3.25 goals2.00
Under 3.25 goals1.84
Over 3 goals1.78
Under 3 goals2.16
Model-only estimates · 125 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Liverpool FC72%
Double chance — Liverpool FC or Draw65%
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Draw64%
Draw no bet — Liverpool FC51%
Draw no bet — Newcastle United FC49%
Liverpool FC to win37%
Newcastle United FC to win35%
Draw28%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 4.5 goals84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals68%
BTTS — Yes59%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.546%
BTTS — No41%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%
Under 1.5 goals21%
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%
Over 4.5 goals16%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Over 5.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%
Newcastle United FC to score 135%
Liverpool FC to score 134%
Winning margin — Draw28%
Newcastle United FC to score 025%
Liverpool FC to score 225%
Liverpool FC clean sheet25%
Newcastle United FC to score 224%
Liverpool FC to score 024%
Newcastle United FC clean sheet24%
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 119%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 118%
Liverpool FC to score 3+17%
Liverpool FC win to nil17%
Newcastle United FC to score 3+17%
Newcastle United FC win to nil17%
Correct score 1-113%
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 211%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 211%
Correct score 1-28%
Correct score 2-18%
Correct score 0-07%
Correct score 0-17%
Correct score 1-07%
Correct score 0-26%
Correct score 2-26%
Correct score 2-06%
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 35%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 34%
Correct score 1-34%
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 42%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 41%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 5+1%
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 5+1%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals72%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals64%
Liverpool FC to win either half53%
Newcastle United FC to win either half52%
Half with most goals — 2nd44%
1st Half result — Draw41%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals37%
Half with most goals — 1st31%
1st Half result — Liverpool FC30%
1st Half result — Newcastle United FC29%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals28%
Liverpool FC to score in both halves26%
Newcastle United FC to score in both halves25%
Half with most goals — Equal25%
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Liverpool FC23%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Newcastle United FC22%
HT/FT Draw / Draw15%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals14%
HT/FT Draw / Liverpool FC13%
HT/FT Draw / Newcastle United FC13%
Liverpool FC to win both halves10%
Newcastle United FC to win both halves9%
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Draw5%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Draw5%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Liverpool FC2%
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Newcastle United FC2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Liverpool FC -2.594%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +2.593%
Handicap — Liverpool FC -1.583%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +1.582%
Handicap — Liverpool FC -0.565%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +0.564%
Handicap — Liverpool FC +0.537%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -0.535%
Handicap — Liverpool FC +1.518%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -1.517%
Handicap — Liverpool FC +2.57%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -2.56%
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)41%
Player to score or assist — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)38%
Player to score or assist — William Osula (Newcastle)37%
Player to score or assist — Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool)37%
Player anytime scorer — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)36%
Player anytime scorer — William Osula (Newcastle)33%
Player to score or assist — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)31%
Player to score or assist — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)31%
Player to score or assist — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)30%
Player anytime scorer — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)29%
Player to score or assist — Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)27%
Player anytime scorer — Alexander Isak (Liverpool)25%
Player anytime scorer — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)23%
Player anytime scorer — Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)23%
Player anytime scorer — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)20%
Player anytime scorer — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)20%
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Federico Chiesa (Liverpool)51%
Player carded — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)35%
Player carded — Joelinton Cássio Apolinário de Lira (Newcastle)32%
Player carded — Dan Burn (Newcastle)27%
Player carded — Joe Willock (Newcastle)21%
Player carded — Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool)18%
Player carded — Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)17%
Player carded — Milos Kerkez (Liverpool)13%