Arsenal FC v Leeds United FC
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Football·Premier League· 2026-10-10 · 11:30

Arsenal FC v Leeds United FC

Recommended bet
Arsenal FC or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)81%
Model edge—
Odds1.23 2/9
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Arsenal FC71%
Draw19%
Leeds United FC11%
$16,122 liquidity · $6,553 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Arsenal FC55%1.44—
Match Winner — Draw26%5.30—
Match Winner — Leeds United FC19%9.40—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals50%1.83—
Under 2.5 goals50%2.18—
Over 2.75 goals—1.95—
Under 2.75 goals—1.93—
Model-only estimates · 167 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Arsenal FC or Draw81%——
Draw no bet — Arsenal FC75%——
Double chance — Arsenal FC or Leeds United FC74%——
Arsenal FC to win55%——
Double chance — Leeds United FC or Draw45%——
Draw27%——
Draw no bet — Leeds United FC26%——
Leeds United FC to win19%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals95%——
Over 0.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals87%——
Over 1.5 goals76%——
Under 3.5 goals72%——
BTTS — Yes52%——
Over 2.5 goals50%——
Under 2.5 goals50%——
BTTS — No48%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.539%——
Over 3.5 goals28%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals26%——
Under 1.5 goals24%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals24%——
Over 4.5 goals13%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals8%——
Over 5.5 goals6%——
Goals range — 7+ goals2%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Leeds United FC to score 039%——
Arsenal FC clean sheet39%——
Leeds United FC to score 137%——
Both score no draw34%——
Arsenal FC win to nil31%——
Arsenal FC to score 131%——
Arsenal FC to score 227%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
Arsenal FC to score 3+25%——
Winning margin — Arsenal FC by 123%——
Arsenal FC to score 018%——
Leeds United FC clean sheet18%——
Winning margin — Arsenal FC by 217%——
Leeds United FC to score 217%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — Leeds United FC by 112%——
Correct score 1-011%——
Correct score 2-010%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Leeds United FC win to nil9%——
Winning margin — Arsenal FC by 39%——
Correct score 0-08%——
Leeds United FC to score 3+7%——
Correct score 3-06%——
Correct score 3-16%——
Correct score 1-25%——
Winning margin — Leeds United FC by 25%——
Correct score 0-15%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Winning margin — Arsenal FC by 44%——
Winning margin — Arsenal FC by 5+2%——
Winning margin — Leeds United FC by 31%——
Winning margin — Leeds United FC by 40%——
Winning margin — Leeds United FC by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals91%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals71%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals66%——
Arsenal FC to win either half65%——
1st Half result — Draw44%——
Half with most goals — 2nd42%——
1st Half result — Arsenal FC38%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals35%——
Leeds United FC to win either half33%——
HT/FT Arsenal FC / Arsenal FC33%——
Half with most goals — 1st30%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals29%——
Arsenal FC to score in both halves28%——
Half with most goals — Equal28%——
HT/FT Draw / Arsenal FC19%——
1st Half result — Leeds United FC18%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw17%——
Arsenal FC to win both halves16%——
Leeds United FC to score in both halves11%——
HT/FT Leeds United FC / Leeds United FC11%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals9%——
HT/FT Draw / Leeds United FC8%——
HT/FT Leeds United FC / Draw4%——
HT/FT Arsenal FC / Draw4%——
Leeds United FC to win both halves3%——
HT/FT Leeds United FC / Arsenal FC2%——
HT/FT Arsenal FC / Leeds United FC1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Arsenal FC +2.598%——
Handicap — Arsenal FC +1.593%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC -2.586%——
Handicap — Arsenal FC +0.581%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC -1.569%——
Handicap — Arsenal FC -0.555%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC -0.545%——
Handicap — Arsenal FC -1.532%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC +0.519%——
Handicap — Arsenal FC -2.514%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC +1.57%——
Handicap — Leeds United FC +2.52%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards97%——
Under 5.5 cards91%——
Under 4.5 cards81%——
Under 3.5 cards64%——
Over 2.5 cards58%——
Most cards — Leeds United FC48%——
Under 2.5 cards42%——
Over 3.5 cards36%——
Most cards — Arsenal FC29%——
Most cards — Tie24%——
Over 4.5 cards19%——
Over 5.5 cards9%——
Over 6.5 cards4%——
Leeds United FC expected cards2%——
Arsenal FC expected cards1%——
Any red card0%——
2+ red cards0%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Under 12.5 corners85%——
Under 11.5 corners76%——
Over 7.5 corners72%——
Under 10.5 corners66%——
Over 8.5 corners60%——
Under 9.5 corners54%——
Most corners — Arsenal FC51%——
Over 9.5 corners47%——
Under 8.5 corners40%——
Most corners — Leeds United FC36%——
Over 10.5 corners34%——
Under 7.5 corners28%——
Over 11.5 corners24%——
Over 12.5 corners16%——
Arsenal FC expected corners5%——
Leeds United FC expected corners4%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls85%——
Under 23.5 fouls80%——
Under 22.5 fouls73%——
Under 21.5 fouls66%——
Under 20.5 fouls57%——
Over 19.5 fouls52%——
Under 19.5 fouls48%——
Most fouls — Leeds United FC47%——
Most fouls — Arsenal FC44%——
Over 20.5 fouls43%——
Over 21.5 fouls34%——
Over 22.5 fouls27%——
Over 23.5 fouls20%——
Over 24.5 fouls15%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)53%——
Player anytime scorer — Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)44%——
Player to score or assist — Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)42%——
Player anytime scorer — Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)41%——
Player to score or assist — Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)38%——
Player to score or assist — Kai Havertz (Arsenal)23%——
Player to score or assist — Anton Stach (Leeds)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Kai Havertz (Arsenal)19%——
Player anytime scorer — Anton Stach (Leeds)15%——
Player to score or assist — Christos Tzolis (Arsenal)11%——
Player to score or assist — Noah Okafor (Leeds)10%——
Player to score or assist — Ethan Ampadu (Leeds)6%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)42%——
Player carded — Jayden Bogle (Leeds)34%——
Player carded — Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal)28%——
Player carded — Christos Tzolis (Arsenal)27%——
Player carded — Declan Rice (Arsenal)13%——
Player carded — Kai Havertz (Arsenal)12%——