Chelsea FC v AFC Bournemouth
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Football·Premier League· 2026-10-10 · 14:00

Chelsea FC v AFC Bournemouth

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)81%
Model edge—
Odds1.23 2/9
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Chelsea FC57%
Draw23%
AFC Bournemouth21%
$105,834 liquidity · $10,797 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Chelsea FC42%1.79—
Match Winner — AFC Bournemouth31%4.70—
Match Winner — Draw27%4.40—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals65%1.76—
Over 2.5 goals57%1.49—
Under 2.5 goals43%2.66—
Over 3.5 goals35%2.33—
Over 3.25 goals—2.03—
Under 3.25 goals—1.86—
Over 3 goals—1.74—
Under 3 goals—2.17—
Model-only estimates · 170 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Chelsea FC or AFC Bournemouth73%——
Double chance — Chelsea FC or Draw69%——
Double chance — AFC Bournemouth or Draw58%——
Draw no bet — Chelsea FC58%——
Draw no bet — AFC Bournemouth43%——
Chelsea FC to win42%——
AFC Bournemouth to win31%——
Draw27%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals94%——
Under 5.5 goals92%——
Under 4.5 goals82%——
Over 1.5 goals81%——
Under 3.5 goals65%——
BTTS — Yes61%——
Over 2.5 goals57%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.548%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals46%——
Under 2.5 goals43%——
BTTS — No39%——
Over 3.5 goals35%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals32%——
Under 1.5 goals19%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals19%——
Over 4.5 goals18%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Over 5.5 goals8%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw41%——
AFC Bournemouth to score 135%——
Chelsea FC to score 132%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
Chelsea FC to score 226%——
AFC Bournemouth to score 026%——
Chelsea FC clean sheet26%——
AFC Bournemouth to score 224%——
Chelsea FC to score 3+22%——
Chelsea FC to score 020%——
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet20%——
Winning margin — Chelsea FC by 120%——
Chelsea FC win to nil19%——
Winning margin — AFC Bournemouth by 117%——
AFC Bournemouth to score 3+16%——
AFC Bournemouth win to nil13%——
Winning margin — Chelsea FC by 213%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Winning margin — AFC Bournemouth by 29%——
Correct score 2-19%——
Correct score 1-28%——
Correct score 1-07%——
Correct score 2-07%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Winning margin — Chelsea FC by 36%——
Correct score 0-16%——
Correct score 3-15%——
Correct score 0-25%——
Winning margin — AFC Bournemouth by 34%——
Winning margin — Chelsea FC by 42%——
Winning margin — AFC Bournemouth by 41%——
Winning margin — Chelsea FC by 5+1%——
Winning margin — AFC Bournemouth by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals81%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals78%——
Chelsea FC to win either half60%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals56%——
AFC Bournemouth to win either half50%——
Half with most goals — 2nd46%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals45%——
1st Half result — Draw37%——
1st Half result — Chelsea FC35%——
Chelsea FC to score in both halves35%——
Half with most goals — 1st32%——
AFC Bournemouth to score in both halves29%——
1st Half result — AFC Bournemouth28%——
HT/FT Chelsea FC / Chelsea FC27%——
Half with most goals — Equal23%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals22%——
HT/FT AFC Bournemouth / AFC Bournemouth20%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals19%——
HT/FT Draw / Chelsea FC14%——
Chelsea FC to win both halves14%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw12%——
HT/FT Draw / AFC Bournemouth11%——
AFC Bournemouth to win both halves8%——
HT/FT AFC Bournemouth / Draw5%——
HT/FT Chelsea FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT AFC Bournemouth / Chelsea FC3%——
HT/FT Chelsea FC / AFC Bournemouth3%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Chelsea FC +2.595%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth -2.591%——
Handicap — Chelsea FC +1.586%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth -1.578%——
Handicap — Chelsea FC +0.569%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth -0.558%——
Handicap — Chelsea FC -0.542%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth +0.531%——
Handicap — Chelsea FC -1.522%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth +1.515%——
Handicap — Chelsea FC -2.59%——
Handicap — AFC Bournemouth +2.55%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards92%——
Under 5.5 cards84%——
Over 2.5 cards71%——
Under 4.5 cards69%——
Most cards — AFC Bournemouth64%——
Under 3.5 cards50%——
Over 3.5 cards50%——
Over 4.5 cards31%——
Under 2.5 cards29%——
Most cards — Tie18%——
Most cards — Chelsea FC18%——
Over 5.5 cards17%——
Over 6.5 cards8%——
AFC Bournemouth expected cards2%——
Chelsea FC expected cards1%——
Any red card0%——
2+ red cards0%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Over 7.5 corners84%——
Over 8.5 corners75%——
Most corners — Chelsea FC72%——
Under 12.5 corners71%——
Over 9.5 corners64%——
Under 11.5 corners60%——
Over 10.5 corners52%——
Under 10.5 corners48%——
Over 11.5 corners40%——
Under 9.5 corners36%——
Over 12.5 corners29%——
Under 8.5 corners25%——
Most corners — AFC Bournemouth19%——
Under 7.5 corners16%——
Chelsea FC expected corners7%——
AFC Bournemouth expected corners4%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls88%——
Under 23.5 fouls84%——
Under 22.5 fouls78%——
Under 21.5 fouls71%——
Under 20.5 fouls63%——
Most fouls — AFC Bournemouth60%——
Under 19.5 fouls54%——
Over 19.5 fouls46%——
Over 20.5 fouls37%——
Most fouls — Chelsea FC32%——
Over 21.5 fouls29%——
Over 22.5 fouls22%——
Over 23.5 fouls17%——
Over 24.5 fouls12%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Morgan Rogers (Chelsea)39%——
Player to score or assist — Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)37%——
Player to score or assist — João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus (Chelsea)31%——
Player anytime scorer — João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus (Chelsea)29%——
Player anytime scorer — Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)26%——
Player anytime scorer — Morgan Rogers (Chelsea)25%——
Player to score or assist — Pedro Lomba Neto (Chelsea)25%——
Player to score or assist — Cole Palmer (Chelsea)24%——
Player to score or assist — Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth)22%——
Player to score or assist — Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth)20%——
Player anytime scorer — Cole Palmer (Chelsea)16%——
Player anytime scorer — Pedro Lomba Neto (Chelsea)14%——
Player anytime scorer — Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth)14%——
Player anytime scorer — Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth)14%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Adam Smith (Bournemouth)40%——
Player carded — Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)30%——
Player carded — António João Pereira de Albuquerque Tavares da Silva (Bournemouth)28%——
Player carded — Wesley Fofana (Chelsea)21%——
Player carded — Levi Samuels Colwill (Chelsea)20%——
Player carded — Maxence Lacroix (Chelsea)19%——
Player carded — Reece James (Chelsea)18%——
Player carded — Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth)16%——