Liverpool FC v Manchester City FC
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Football·Premier League· 2026-10-11 · 15:30

Liverpool FC v Manchester City FC

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.27 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Liverpool FC37%
Draw26%
Manchester City FC38%
$18,126 liquidity · $17,239 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Liverpool FC43%2.68—
Match Winner — Manchester City FC29%2.67—
Match Winner — Draw28%3.90—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals69%1.63—
Over 2.5 goals54%1.60—
Under 2.5 goals46%2.46—
Over 3.5 goals31%2.49—
Over 3 goals—1.92—
Under 3 goals—1.96—
Model-only estimates · 172 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Liverpool FC or Manchester City FC72%——
Double chance — Liverpool FC or Draw71%——
Draw no bet — Liverpool FC60%——
Double chance — Manchester City FC or Draw57%——
Liverpool FC to win43%——
Draw no bet — Manchester City FC40%——
Manchester City FC to win29%——
Draw28%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals69%——
BTTS — Yes58%——
Over 2.5 goals54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals48%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%——
BTTS — No42%——
Over 3.5 goals31%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals8%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
Manchester City FC to score 136%——
Liverpool FC to score 133%——
Manchester City FC to score 029%——
Liverpool FC clean sheet29%——
Winning margin — Draw28%——
Liverpool FC to score 226%——
Manchester City FC to score 222%——
Liverpool FC win to nil21%——
Liverpool FC to score 3+21%——
Liverpool FC to score 021%——
Manchester City FC clean sheet21%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 121%——
Winning margin — Manchester City FC by 116%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 214%——
Manchester City FC win to nil13%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Manchester City FC to score 3+13%——
Correct score 2-19%——
Winning margin — Manchester City FC by 29%——
Correct score 1-08%——
Correct score 0-08%——
Correct score 1-27%——
Correct score 2-07%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 36%——
Correct score 0-16%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 3-15%——
Correct score 0-25%——
Winning margin — Manchester City FC by 33%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 42%——
Winning margin — Manchester City FC by 41%——
Winning margin — Liverpool FC by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Manchester City FC by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals72%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals64%——
Liverpool FC to win either half59%——
Manchester City FC to win either half46%——
Half with most goals — 2nd44%——
1st Half result — Draw40%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals36%——
1st Half result — Liverpool FC34%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
Liverpool FC to score in both halves29%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals28%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Liverpool FC27%——
1st Half result — Manchester City FC25%——
Half with most goals — Equal25%——
Manchester City FC to score in both halves22%——
HT/FT Manchester City FC / Manchester City FC18%——
HT/FT Draw / Liverpool FC15%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw14%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals14%——
Liverpool FC to win both halves13%——
HT/FT Draw / Manchester City FC11%——
Manchester City FC to win both halves7%——
HT/FT Manchester City FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Manchester City FC / Liverpool FC3%——
HT/FT Liverpool FC / Manchester City FC2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Liverpool FC +2.596%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC -2.591%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC +1.587%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC -1.577%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC +0.571%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC -0.557%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC -0.543%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC +0.529%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC -1.523%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC +1.513%——
Handicap — Liverpool FC -2.59%——
Handicap — Manchester City FC +2.54%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards86%——
Over 2.5 cards80%——
Under 5.5 cards74%——
Over 3.5 cards62%——
Most cards — Manchester City FC60%——
Under 4.5 cards58%——
Over 4.5 cards42%——
Under 3.5 cards39%——
Over 5.5 cards26%——
Most cards — Liverpool FC22%——
Under 2.5 cards20%——
Any red card18%——
Most cards — Tie18%——
Over 6.5 cards14%——
Manchester City FC expected cards3%——
2+ red cards2%——
Liverpool FC expected cards2%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Over 7.5 corners80%——
Under 12.5 corners77%——
Most corners — Manchester City FC70%——
Over 8.5 corners69%——
Under 11.5 corners67%——
Over 9.5 corners57%——
Under 10.5 corners56%——
Over 10.5 corners44%——
Under 9.5 corners43%——
Over 11.5 corners33%——
Under 8.5 corners31%——
Over 12.5 corners23%——
Under 7.5 corners20%——
Most corners — Liverpool FC20%——
Manchester City FC expected corners6%——
Liverpool FC expected corners4%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Over 19.5 fouls81%——
Over 20.5 fouls75%——
Over 21.5 fouls68%——
Over 22.5 fouls60%——
Under 24.5 fouls57%——
Most fouls — Liverpool FC56%——
Over 23.5 fouls51%——
Under 23.5 fouls49%——
Over 24.5 fouls43%——
Under 22.5 fouls40%——
Most fouls — Manchester City FC36%——
Under 21.5 fouls33%——
Under 20.5 fouls25%——
Under 19.5 fouls19%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Erling Haaland (Man City)56%——
Player anytime scorer — Erling Haaland (Man City)52%——
Player to score or assist — Rayan Cherki (Man City)43%——
Player to score or assist — Alexander Isak (Liverpool)39%——
Player anytime scorer — Alexander Isak (Liverpool)38%——
Player to score or assist — Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)32%——
Player to score or assist — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)30%——
Player to score or assist — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)23%——
Player to score or assist — Enzo Fernández (Man City)22%——
Player anytime scorer — Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)22%——
Player to score or assist — Iliman Ndiaye (Man City)17%——
Player anytime scorer — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)17%——
Player anytime scorer — Rayan Cherki (Man City)16%——
Player anytime scorer — Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)10%——
Player anytime scorer — Enzo Fernández (Man City)10%——
Player anytime scorer — Iliman Ndiaye (Man City)7%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Milos Kerkez (Liverpool)32%——
Player carded — Enzo Fernández (Man City)24%——
Player carded — Ronald Araujo (Liverpool)23%——
Player carded — Rayan Cherki (Man City)22%——
Player carded — Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool)22%——
Player carded — Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)17%——
Player carded — Elliot Anderson (Man City)17%——
Player carded — Joško Gvardiol (Man City)16%——