Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC
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Football·Premier League· 2026-10-17 · 16:30

Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge
Odds1.26 1/4
All markets
Model-only estimates · 163 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Draw74%
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Aston Villa FC73%
Draw no bet — Newcastle United FC64%
Double chance — Aston Villa FC or Draw53%
Newcastle United FC to win47%
Draw no bet — Aston Villa FC36%
Draw27%
Aston Villa FC to win26%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 4.5 goals84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals68%
BTTS — Yes58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%
BTTS — No42%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%
Under 1.5 goals21%
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%
Over 4.5 goals16%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Over 5.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%
Aston Villa FC to score 136%
Newcastle United FC to score 132%
Aston Villa FC to score 030%
Newcastle United FC clean sheet30%
Winning margin — Draw27%
Newcastle United FC to score 226%
Newcastle United FC to score 3+23%
Newcastle United FC win to nil23%
Aston Villa FC to score 222%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 121%
Newcastle United FC to score 019%
Aston Villa FC clean sheet19%
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 115%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 215%
Correct score 1-113%
Aston Villa FC to score 3+12%
Aston Villa FC win to nil12%
Correct score 2-110%
Correct score 1-08%
Correct score 2-08%
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 28%
Correct score 0-07%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 37%
Correct score 1-27%
Correct score 2-26%
Correct score 0-15%
Correct score 3-15%
Correct score 3-04%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 43%
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 33%
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 5+1%
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 41%
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals73%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals62%
Newcastle United FC to win either half62%
Half with most goals — 2nd44%
Aston Villa FC to win either half43%
1st Half result — Draw40%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals38%
1st Half result — Newcastle United FC37%
Newcastle United FC to score in both halves32%
Half with most goals — 1st31%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Newcastle United FC30%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals27%
Half with most goals — Equal25%
1st Half result — Aston Villa FC24%
Aston Villa FC to score in both halves21%
HT/FT Draw / Newcastle United FC16%
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Aston Villa FC16%
Newcastle United FC to win both halves15%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals15%
HT/FT Draw / Draw14%
HT/FT Draw / Aston Villa FC10%
Aston Villa FC to win both halves6%
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Draw5%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Draw5%
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Newcastle United FC3%
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Aston Villa FC2%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +2.597%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -2.589%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +1.589%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -1.575%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +0.574%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -0.553%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -0.547%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +0.526%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -1.525%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +1.511%
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -2.511%
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +2.54%
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards97%
Under 5.5 cards93%
Under 4.5 cards84%
Under 3.5 cards69%
Most cards — Aston Villa FC56%
Over 2.5 cards54%
Under 2.5 cards46%
Over 3.5 cards31%
Most cards — Tie23%
Any red card22%
Most cards — Newcastle United FC21%
Over 4.5 cards16%
Over 5.5 cards7%
Over 6.5 cards3%
2+ red cards3%
Aston Villa FC expected cards2%
Newcastle United FC expected cards1%
CornersProbOddsEdge
Under 12.5 corners86%
Under 11.5 corners78%
Most corners — Newcastle United FC72%
Over 7.5 corners71%
Under 10.5 corners68%
Over 8.5 corners58%
Under 9.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Under 8.5 corners42%
Over 10.5 corners32%
Under 7.5 corners30%
Over 11.5 corners22%
Most corners — Aston Villa FC18%
Over 12.5 corners14%
Newcastle United FC expected corners6%
Aston Villa FC expected corners4%
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls76%
Under 23.5 fouls69%
Over 19.5 fouls64%
Under 22.5 fouls61%
Over 20.5 fouls56%
Under 21.5 fouls53%
Over 21.5 fouls47%
Most fouls — Newcastle United FC46%
Most fouls — Aston Villa FC46%
Under 20.5 fouls44%
Over 22.5 fouls39%
Under 19.5 fouls36%
Over 23.5 fouls31%
Over 24.5 fouls24%
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)28%
Player anytime scorer — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)28%
Player to score or assist — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)21%
Player to score or assist — John McGinn (Aston Villa)19%
Player anytime scorer — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)17%
Player to score or assist — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)17%
Player anytime scorer — John McGinn (Aston Villa)15%
Player to score or assist — Ross Barkley (Aston Villa)12%
Player anytime scorer — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)10%
Player anytime scorer — Ross Barkley (Aston Villa)9%
Player to score or assist — George Hemmings (Aston Villa)6%
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)35%
Player carded — John McGinn (Aston Villa)35%
Player carded — Lewis Miley (Newcastle)22%
Player carded — Sven Botman (Newcastle)19%