Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC
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Newcastle United FC v Aston Villa FC
Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge—
Odds1.26 1/4
All markets
Model-only estimates · 163 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Draw74%——
Double chance — Newcastle United FC or Aston Villa FC73%——
Draw no bet — Newcastle United FC64%——
Double chance — Aston Villa FC or Draw53%——
Newcastle United FC to win47%——
Draw no bet — Aston Villa FC36%——
Draw27%——
Aston Villa FC to win26%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals68%——
BTTS — Yes58%——
Over 2.5 goals54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.545%——
BTTS — No42%——
Over 3.5 goals32%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.513%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw38%——
Aston Villa FC to score 136%——
Newcastle United FC to score 132%——
Aston Villa FC to score 030%——
Newcastle United FC clean sheet30%——
Winning margin — Draw27%——
Newcastle United FC to score 226%——
Newcastle United FC to score 3+23%——
Newcastle United FC win to nil23%——
Aston Villa FC to score 222%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 121%——
Newcastle United FC to score 019%——
Aston Villa FC clean sheet19%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 115%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 215%——
Correct score 1-113%——
Aston Villa FC to score 3+12%——
Aston Villa FC win to nil12%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Correct score 1-08%——
Correct score 2-08%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 28%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 37%——
Correct score 1-27%——
Correct score 2-26%——
Correct score 0-15%——
Correct score 3-15%——
Correct score 3-04%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 43%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 33%——
Winning margin — Newcastle United FC by 5+1%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 41%——
Winning margin — Aston Villa FC by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals86%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals73%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals62%——
Newcastle United FC to win either half62%——
Half with most goals — 2nd44%——
Aston Villa FC to win either half43%——
1st Half result — Draw40%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals38%——
1st Half result — Newcastle United FC37%——
Newcastle United FC to score in both halves32%——
Half with most goals — 1st31%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Newcastle United FC30%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals27%——
Half with most goals — Equal25%——
1st Half result — Aston Villa FC24%——
Aston Villa FC to score in both halves21%——
HT/FT Draw / Newcastle United FC16%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Aston Villa FC16%——
Newcastle United FC to win both halves15%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals15%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw14%——
HT/FT Draw / Aston Villa FC10%——
Aston Villa FC to win both halves6%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Draw5%——
HT/FT Aston Villa FC / Newcastle United FC3%——
HT/FT Newcastle United FC / Aston Villa FC2%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +2.597%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -2.589%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +1.589%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -1.575%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC +0.574%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC -0.553%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -0.547%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +0.526%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -1.525%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +1.511%——
Handicap — Newcastle United FC -2.511%——
Handicap — Aston Villa FC +2.54%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards97%——
Under 5.5 cards93%——
Under 4.5 cards84%——
Under 3.5 cards69%——
Most cards — Aston Villa FC56%——
Over 2.5 cards54%——
Under 2.5 cards46%——
Over 3.5 cards31%——
Most cards — Tie23%——
Any red card22%——
Most cards — Newcastle United FC21%——
Over 4.5 cards16%——
Over 5.5 cards7%——
Over 6.5 cards3%——
2+ red cards3%——
Aston Villa FC expected cards2%——
Newcastle United FC expected cards1%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Under 12.5 corners86%——
Under 11.5 corners78%——
Most corners — Newcastle United FC72%——
Over 7.5 corners71%——
Under 10.5 corners68%——
Over 8.5 corners58%——
Under 9.5 corners56%——
Over 9.5 corners45%——
Under 8.5 corners42%——
Over 10.5 corners32%——
Under 7.5 corners30%——
Over 11.5 corners22%——
Most corners — Aston Villa FC18%——
Over 12.5 corners14%——
Newcastle United FC expected corners6%——
Aston Villa FC expected corners4%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls76%——
Under 23.5 fouls69%——
Over 19.5 fouls64%——
Under 22.5 fouls61%——
Over 20.5 fouls56%——
Under 21.5 fouls53%——
Over 21.5 fouls47%——
Most fouls — Newcastle United FC46%——
Most fouls — Aston Villa FC46%——
Under 20.5 fouls44%——
Over 22.5 fouls39%——
Under 19.5 fouls36%——
Over 23.5 fouls31%——
Over 24.5 fouls24%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Player to score or assist — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)28%——
Player anytime scorer — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)28%——
Player to score or assist — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)21%——
Player to score or assist — John McGinn (Aston Villa)19%——
Player anytime scorer — Emiliano Buendía Stati (Aston Villa)17%——
Player to score or assist — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)17%——
Player anytime scorer — John McGinn (Aston Villa)15%——
Player to score or assist — Ross Barkley (Aston Villa)12%——
Player anytime scorer — Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)10%——
Player anytime scorer — Ross Barkley (Aston Villa)9%——
Player to score or assist — George Hemmings (Aston Villa)6%——
Player cardsProbOddsEdge
Player carded — Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)35%——
Player carded — John McGinn (Aston Villa)35%——
Player carded — Lewis Miley (Newcastle)22%——
Player carded — Sven Botman (Newcastle)19%——