Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF
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Football·Primera Division· 2026-10-10 · 19:00

Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF

Recommended bet
Real Madrid CF or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability84%
Implied (with margin)84%
Model edge
Odds1.19 2/11
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Real Madrid CF60%4.00
Match Winner — Villarreal CF60%1.95
Match Winner — Draw24%3.96
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals54%1.71
Under 2.5 goals46%2.32
Over 2.75 goals1.82
Under 2.75 goals2.03
Model-only estimates · 156 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Real Madrid CF or Draw84%
Draw no bet — Real Madrid CF79%
Double chance — Real Madrid CF or Villarreal CF76%
Real Madrid CF to win60%
Double chance — Villarreal CF or Draw40%
Draw24%
Draw no bet — Villarreal CF21%
Villarreal CF to win16%
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%
Over 0.5 goals93%
Under 4.5 goals84%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals54%
BTTS — Yes52%
BTTS — No48%
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%
Under 2.5 goals46%
BTTS Yes + Over 2.541%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%
Under 1.5 goals21%
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%
Over 4.5 goals16%
BTTS Yes + Under 2.512%
Under 0.5 goals7%
Over 5.5 goals7%
Goals range — 7+ goals3%
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Villarreal CF to score 040%
Real Madrid CF clean sheet40%
Villarreal CF to score 137%
Both score no draw35%
Real Madrid CF win to nil33%
Real Madrid CF to score 3+30%
Real Madrid CF to score 128%
Real Madrid CF to score 227%
Winning margin — Draw24%
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 123%
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 219%
Villarreal CF to score 217%
Real Madrid CF to score 015%
Villarreal CF clean sheet15%
Correct score 1-112%
Correct score 2-011%
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 311%
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 110%
Correct score 1-010%
Correct score 2-110%
Villarreal CF win to nil7%
Correct score 0-07%
Correct score 3-07%
Villarreal CF to score 3+6%
Correct score 3-16%
Correct score 1-25%
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 45%
Correct score 2-25%
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 24%
Correct score 0-14%
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 5+2%
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 31%
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 40%
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 5+0%
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals83%
1st Half Over 0.5 goals76%
Real Madrid CF to win either half74%
1st Half Under 1.5 goals59%
1st Half result — Real Madrid CF47%
Half with most goals — 2nd45%
Real Madrid CF to score in both halves42%
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Real Madrid CF41%
1st Half Over 1.5 goals41%
1st Half result — Draw36%
Half with most goals — 1st32%
Villarreal CF to win either half32%
1st Half Under 0.5 goals24%
Real Madrid CF to win both halves24%
Half with most goals — Equal23%
HT/FT Draw / Real Madrid CF19%
1st Half result — Villarreal CF17%
1st Half Over 2.5 goals17%
Villarreal CF to score in both halves16%
HT/FT Draw / Draw11%
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Villarreal CF9%
HT/FT Draw / Villarreal CF6%
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Draw4%
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Draw4%
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Real Madrid CF3%
Villarreal CF to win both halves3%
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Villarreal CF1%
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +2.599%
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +1.594%
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +0.584%
Handicap — Villarreal CF -2.582%
Handicap — Villarreal CF -1.564%
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -0.560%
Handicap — Villarreal CF -0.540%
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -1.537%
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -2.518%
Handicap — Villarreal CF +0.516%
Handicap — Villarreal CF +1.56%
Handicap — Villarreal CF +2.51%
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards90%
Under 5.5 cards80%
Over 2.5 cards74%
Under 4.5 cards65%
Most cards — Villarreal CF56%
Over 3.5 cards54%
Under 3.5 cards46%
Over 4.5 cards35%
Under 2.5 cards26%
Most cards — Real Madrid CF24%
Over 5.5 cards20%
Most cards — Tie20%
Over 6.5 cards10%
Villarreal CF expected cards2%
Real Madrid CF expected cards2%
Any red card0%
2+ red cards0%
CornersProbOddsEdge
Over 7.5 corners98%
Over 8.5 corners96%
Over 9.5 corners93%
Over 10.5 corners88%
Over 11.5 corners82%
Over 12.5 corners73%
Most corners — Real Madrid CF50%
Most corners — Villarreal CF40%
Under 12.5 corners27%
Under 11.5 corners19%
Under 10.5 corners12%
Real Madrid CF expected corners8%
Villarreal CF expected corners7%
Under 9.5 corners7%
Under 8.5 corners4%
Under 7.5 corners2%
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls88%
Under 23.5 fouls83%
Under 22.5 fouls77%
Under 21.5 fouls69%
Under 20.5 fouls61%
Most fouls — Villarreal CF59%
Under 19.5 fouls53%
Over 19.5 fouls48%
Over 20.5 fouls39%
Most fouls — Real Madrid CF33%
Over 21.5 fouls31%
Over 22.5 fouls23%
Over 23.5 fouls17%
Over 24.5 fouls13%
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Anytime scorer — Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid CF)67%
Anytime scorer — Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid CF)43%
Anytime scorer — Nicolas Pépé (Villarreal CF)35%
Anytime scorer — Carlos Espí (Real Madrid CF)24%
Anytime scorer — Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid CF)24%
Anytime scorer — Pape Gueye (Villarreal CF)19%
Anytime scorer — Gerard Moreno (Villarreal CF)19%
Anytime scorer — Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal CF)19%