Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF
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Football·Primera Division· 2026-10-10 · 19:00

Real Madrid CF v Villarreal CF

Recommended bet
Real Madrid CF or Draw
Double chance
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability83%
Implied (with margin)83%
Model edge—
Odds1.21 1/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Real Madrid CF74%
Draw16%
Villarreal CF12%
$49,866 liquidity · $28,044 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Real Madrid CF58%1.37—
Match Winner — Villarreal CF58%9.00—
Match Winner — Draw25%6.40—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 3.5 goals68%2.14—
Over 2.5 goals54%1.32—
Under 2.5 goals46%3.50—
Over 3.5 goals32%1.83—
Over 3.75 goals—2.00—
Under 3.75 goals—1.89—
Model-only estimates · 155 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — Real Madrid CF or Draw83%——
Draw no bet — Real Madrid CF77%——
Double chance — Real Madrid CF or Villarreal CF75%——
Real Madrid CF to win58%——
Double chance — Villarreal CF or Draw42%——
Draw25%——
Draw no bet — Villarreal CF23%——
Villarreal CF to win17%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Under 5.5 goals93%——
Over 0.5 goals93%——
Under 4.5 goals84%——
Over 1.5 goals79%——
Under 3.5 goals68%——
Over 2.5 goals55%——
BTTS — Yes54%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals47%——
BTTS — No46%——
Under 2.5 goals46%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.542%——
Over 3.5 goals32%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals29%——
Under 1.5 goals21%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals21%——
Over 4.5 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.512%——
Under 0.5 goals7%——
Over 5.5 goals7%——
Goals range — 7+ goals3%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Villarreal CF to score 039%——
Real Madrid CF clean sheet39%——
Villarreal CF to score 137%——
Both score no draw36%——
Real Madrid CF win to nil31%——
Real Madrid CF to score 3+30%——
Real Madrid CF to score 128%——
Real Madrid CF to score 227%——
Winning margin — Draw25%——
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 123%——
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 218%——
Villarreal CF to score 218%——
Real Madrid CF to score 015%——
Villarreal CF clean sheet15%——
Correct score 1-112%——
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 111%——
Correct score 2-010%——
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 310%——
Correct score 2-110%——
Correct score 1-010%——
Villarreal CF win to nil8%——
Villarreal CF to score 3+7%——
Correct score 0-07%——
Correct score 3-07%——
Correct score 3-16%——
Correct score 1-25%——
Correct score 2-25%——
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 25%——
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 45%——
Correct score 0-14%——
Winning margin — Real Madrid CF by 5+2%——
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 31%——
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 40%——
Winning margin — Villarreal CF by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals83%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals76%——
Real Madrid CF to win either half73%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals58%——
1st Half result — Real Madrid CF46%——
Half with most goals — 2nd45%——
Real Madrid CF to score in both halves42%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals42%——
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Real Madrid CF40%——
1st Half result — Draw36%——
Villarreal CF to win either half33%——
Half with most goals — 1st32%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals24%——
Half with most goals — Equal23%——
Real Madrid CF to win both halves23%——
HT/FT Draw / Real Madrid CF18%——
1st Half result — Villarreal CF18%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals17%——
Villarreal CF to score in both halves17%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw11%——
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Villarreal CF10%——
HT/FT Draw / Villarreal CF7%——
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Draw5%——
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Draw5%——
HT/FT Villarreal CF / Real Madrid CF3%——
Villarreal CF to win both halves3%——
HT/FT Real Madrid CF / Villarreal CF1%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +2.598%——
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +1.594%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF -2.583%——
Handicap — Real Madrid CF +0.583%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF -1.565%——
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -0.558%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF -0.542%——
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -1.535%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF +0.517%——
Handicap — Real Madrid CF -2.517%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF +1.56%——
Handicap — Villarreal CF +2.52%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards97%——
Under 5.5 cards93%——
Under 4.5 cards84%——
Under 3.5 cards68%——
Over 2.5 cards54%——
Most cards — Villarreal CF49%——
Under 2.5 cards46%——
Over 3.5 cards32%——
Most cards — Real Madrid CF27%——
Most cards — Tie24%——
Over 4.5 cards16%——
Any red card13%——
Over 5.5 cards7%——
Over 6.5 cards3%——
Villarreal CF expected cards2%——
Real Madrid CF expected cards1%——
2+ red cards1%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Over 7.5 corners97%——
Over 8.5 corners94%——
Over 9.5 corners90%——
Over 10.5 corners83%——
Over 11.5 corners75%——
Over 12.5 corners66%——
Most corners — Villarreal CF49%——
Most corners — Real Madrid CF40%——
Under 12.5 corners35%——
Under 11.5 corners25%——
Under 10.5 corners17%——
Under 9.5 corners10%——
Villarreal CF expected corners7%——
Real Madrid CF expected corners7%——
Under 8.5 corners6%——
Under 7.5 corners3%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Under 24.5 fouls97%——
Under 23.5 fouls95%——
Under 22.5 fouls92%——
Under 21.5 fouls88%——
Under 20.5 fouls82%——
Under 19.5 fouls76%——
Most fouls — Villarreal CF55%——
Most fouls — Real Madrid CF36%——
Over 19.5 fouls24%——
Over 20.5 fouls18%——
Over 21.5 fouls12%——
Over 22.5 fouls8%——
Over 23.5 fouls6%——
Over 24.5 fouls4%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Anytime scorer — Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid CF)75%——
Anytime scorer — Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid CF)44%——
Anytime scorer — Carlos Espí (Real Madrid CF)32%——
Anytime scorer — Pape Gueye (Villarreal CF)32%——
Anytime scorer — Nicolas Pépé (Villarreal CF)23%——
Anytime scorer — Gerard Moreno (Villarreal CF)23%——
Anytime scorer — Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal CF)23%——