1. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
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Football·Bundesliga· 2026-10-10 · 13:30

1. FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Recommended bet
Over 1.5 goals
Total goals
De-vigged fair price from the marketLow
Win probability84%
Implied (with margin)84%
Model edge—
Odds1.19 2/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
1. FSV Mainz 0532%
Draw24%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen44%
$11,398 liquidity · $190 traded · data from Polymarket
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Match Winner — Bayer 04 Leverkusen45%2.31—
Match Winner — 1. FSV Mainz 0529%3.01—
Match Winner — Draw26%4.00—
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 2.5 goals62%1.50—
Under 3.5 goals60%1.79—
Over 3.5 goals40%2.19—
Under 2.5 goals38%2.80—
Over 3.25 goals—1.93—
Under 3.25 goals—1.95—
Model-only estimates · 152 markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Double chance — 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Bayer 04 Leverkusen74%——
Double chance — Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Draw71%——
Draw no bet — Bayer 04 Leverkusen61%——
Double chance — 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw55%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win45%——
Draw no bet — 1. FSV Mainz 0539%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win29%——
Draw26%——
GoalsProbOddsEdge
Over 0.5 goals95%——
Under 5.5 goals89%——
Over 1.5 goals84%——
Under 4.5 goals78%——
BTTS — Yes65%——
Over 2.5 goals62%——
Under 3.5 goals60%——
BTTS Yes + Over 2.553%——
Goals range — 2-3 goals44%——
Over 3.5 goals40%——
Under 2.5 goals38%——
BTTS — No36%——
Goals range — 4-6 goals36%——
Over 4.5 goals22%——
Under 1.5 goals16%——
Goals range — 0-1 goals16%——
BTTS Yes + Under 2.512%——
Over 5.5 goals11%——
Under 0.5 goals5%——
Goals range — 7+ goals5%——
Score & marginProbOddsEdge
Both score no draw44%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score 134%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score 130%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score 227%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score 3+27%——
Winning margin — Draw26%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score 224%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score 024%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet24%——
Winning margin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 120%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win to nil19%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score 3+17%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score 017%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet17%——
Winning margin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 by 116%——
Winning margin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 214%——
Correct score 1-112%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 win to nil11%——
Correct score 1-29%——
Winning margin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 by 29%——
Correct score 2-17%——
Winning margin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 37%——
Correct score 2-27%——
Correct score 0-27%——
Correct score 0-16%——
Correct score 1-36%——
Correct score 0-05%——
Correct score 1-04%——
Correct score 2-04%——
Winning margin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 by 34%——
Winning margin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 43%——
Winning margin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 5+1%——
Winning margin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 by 41%——
Winning margin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 by 5+0%——
HalvesProbOddsEdge
1st Half Under 2.5 goals83%——
1st Half Over 0.5 goals76%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win either half61%——
1st Half Under 1.5 goals59%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win either half47%——
Half with most goals — 2nd45%——
1st Half Over 1.5 goals41%——
1st Half result — Draw38%——
1st Half result — Bayer 04 Leverkusen36%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score in both halves34%——
Half with most goals — 1st32%——
HT/FT Bayer 04 Leverkusen / Bayer 04 Leverkusen28%——
1st Half result — 1. FSV Mainz 0526%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score in both halves25%——
1st Half Under 0.5 goals25%——
Half with most goals — Equal23%——
HT/FT 1. FSV Mainz 05 / 1. FSV Mainz 0518%——
1st Half Over 2.5 goals17%——
HT/FT Draw / Bayer 04 Leverkusen15%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win both halves14%——
HT/FT Draw / Draw13%——
HT/FT Draw / 1. FSV Mainz 0511%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 to win both halves7%——
HT/FT Bayer 04 Leverkusen / Draw5%——
HT/FT 1. FSV Mainz 05 / Draw5%——
HT/FT 1. FSV Mainz 05 / Bayer 04 Leverkusen3%——
HT/FT Bayer 04 Leverkusen / 1. FSV Mainz 052%——
HandicapsProbOddsEdge
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen -2.595%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 +2.589%——
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen -1.586%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 +1.575%——
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen -0.571%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.555%——
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.545%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 -0.529%——
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.525%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 -1.514%——
Handicap — Bayer 04 Leverkusen +2.511%——
Handicap — 1. FSV Mainz 05 -2.55%——
CardsProbOddsEdge
Under 6.5 cards100%——
Under 5.5 cards100%——
Under 4.5 cards98%——
Under 3.5 cards94%——
Under 2.5 cards81%——
Most cards — Bayer 04 Leverkusen55%——
Most cards — Tie33%——
Over 2.5 cards19%——
Most cards — 1. FSV Mainz 0512%——
Over 3.5 cards7%——
Over 4.5 cards2%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen expected cards1%——
Over 5.5 cards0%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 expected cards0%——
Over 6.5 cards0%——
Any red card0%——
2+ red cards0%——
CornersProbOddsEdge
Over 7.5 corners99%——
Over 8.5 corners97%——
Over 9.5 corners95%——
Over 10.5 corners90%——
Over 11.5 corners85%——
Most corners — Bayer 04 Leverkusen78%——
Over 12.5 corners77%——
Under 12.5 corners23%——
Under 11.5 corners15%——
Most corners — 1. FSV Mainz 0515%——
Under 10.5 corners10%——
Bayer 04 Leverkusen expected corners10%——
1. FSV Mainz 05 expected corners6%——
Under 9.5 corners6%——
Under 8.5 corners3%——
Under 7.5 corners1%——
FoulsProbOddsEdge
Over 19.5 fouls81%——
Over 20.5 fouls75%——
Over 21.5 fouls68%——
Over 22.5 fouls60%——
Under 24.5 fouls57%——
Most fouls — 1. FSV Mainz 0556%——
Over 23.5 fouls52%——
Under 23.5 fouls48%——
Over 24.5 fouls44%——
Under 22.5 fouls40%——
Most fouls — Bayer 04 Leverkusen36%——
Under 21.5 fouls32%——
Under 20.5 fouls25%——
Under 19.5 fouls19%——
GoalscorersProbOddsEdge
Anytime scorer — Patrik Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen)70%——
Anytime scorer — Phillip Tietz (1. FSV Mainz 05)54%——
Anytime scorer — Christian Kofane (Bayer 04 Leverkusen)45%——
Anytime scorer — Sheraldo Becker (1. FSV Mainz 05)32%——