Tennis·ATP Japan Open· 2026-10-01 · 06:50

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini

Recommended bet

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Match winner

De-vigged fair price from the marketMed

Win probability55%

Implied (with margin)58%

Model edge-4.8%

Odds1.73 8/11

Crowd odds — Polymarket

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina57%

Matteo Berrettini43%

$170,597 liquidity · $7,100 traded · data from Polymarket

Why the model leans this way

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 38% of return points vs Matteo Berrettini's 34%
Matteo Berrettini serves aces on 12% of points vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 5%

All markets

Match winnerProbOddsEdge

Matteo Berrettini to win52%1.92—

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win48%2.09—

Match Winner — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina—1.73—

Match Winner — Matteo Berrettini—2.34—