Alex de Minaur v Gabriel Diallo
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Tennis·ATP Queen's Club Championships· 2026-06-16 · 08:00

Alex de Minaur v Gabriel Diallo

Recommended bet
Alex de Minaur
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)81%
Model edge+0.3%
Odds1.24 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Alex de Minaur81%
Gabriel Diallo20%
$38,932 liquidity · $10,827 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Gabriel Diallo wins only 48% of 2nd-serve points (Alex de Minaur: 55%)
  • Alex de Minaur wins 40% of return points vs Gabriel Diallo's 34%
  • Gabriel Diallo serves aces on 10% of points vs Alex de Minaur's 6%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Alex de Minaur to win80%1.25—
Gabriel Diallo to win20%4.98—
Match Winner — Alex de Minaur—1.24—
Match Winner — Gabriel Diallo—5.10—