Alex de Minaur v Hubert Hurkacz
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Tennis·ATP China Open· 2026-10-05 · 07:00

Alex de Minaur v Hubert Hurkacz

Recommended bet
Alex de Minaur
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability57%
Implied (with margin)54%
Model edge+5.3%
Odds1.84 5/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Alex de Minaur55%
Hubert Hurkacz46%
$86,949 liquidity · $11,297 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Alex de Minaur wins 40% of return points vs Hubert Hurkacz's 34%
  • Hubert Hurkacz serves aces on 15% of points vs Alex de Minaur's 6%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Alex de Minaur to win66%1.52—
Hubert Hurkacz to win34%2.92—
Match Winner — Alex de Minaur—1.84—
Match Winner — Hubert Hurkacz—2.18—