Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz
Back to board
Tennis·ATP Paris Masters· 2026-11-04 · 18:00

Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability81%
Implied (with margin)83%
Model edge-2.7%
Odds1.20 1/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Alex Michelsen18%
Carlos Alcaraz83%
$11,916 liquidity · $0 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Alex Michelsen's 80%
  • Alex Michelsen wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Alex Michelsen's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win75%1.33—
Alex Michelsen to win25%4.04—
Match Winner — Alex Michelsen—5.60—
Match Winner — Carlos Alcaraz—1.20—