Alexander Bublik v Tommy Paul
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-04 · 15:00

Alexander Bublik v Tommy Paul

Recommended bet
Tommy Paul
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability64%
Implied (with margin)65%
Model edge-1.5%
Odds1.55 8/15
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Alexander Bublik39%
Tommy Paul62%
$38,450 liquidity · $200 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Alexander Bublik wins only 48% of 2nd-serve points (Tommy Paul: 54%)
  • Alexander Bublik double-faults on 6% of serve points vs Tommy Paul's 2%
  • Tommy Paul wins 39% of return points vs Alexander Bublik's 35%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Tommy Paul to win64%1.56—
Alexander Bublik to win36%2.78—
Match Winner — Alexander Bublik—2.76—
Match Winner — Tommy Paul—1.55—