Ben Shelton v Denis Shapovalov
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-05 · 00:10

Ben Shelton v Denis Shapovalov

Recommended bet
Ben Shelton
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability73%
Implied (with margin)79%
Model edge-7.0%
Odds1.27 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Ben Shelton78%
Denis Shapovalov23%
$149,418 liquidity · $7,283 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Ben Shelton holds serve 88% of games vs Denis Shapovalov's 80%
  • Denis Shapovalov wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Ben Shelton: 55%)
  • Denis Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Ben Shelton's 4%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Ben Shelton to win60%1.68—
Denis Shapovalov to win40%2.47—
Match Winner — Ben Shelton—1.28—
Match Winner — Denis Shapovalov—4.50—