Carlos Alcaraz v Denis Shapovalov
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Tennis·ATP Japan Open· 2026-10-04 · 04:00

Carlos Alcaraz v Denis Shapovalov

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability85%
Implied (with margin)88%
Model edge-3.1%
Odds1.14 1/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz88%
Denis Shapovalov13%
$99,365 liquidity · $78,306 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Denis Shapovalov's 80%
  • Denis Shapovalov wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Denis Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Carlos Alcaraz's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win77%1.31—
Denis Shapovalov to win23%4.28—
Match Winner — Carlos Alcaraz—1.14—
Match Winner — Denis Shapovalov—7.80—