Carlos Alcaraz v Jaume Munar
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Tennis·ATP Japan Open· 2026-10-05 · 07:00

Carlos Alcaraz v Jaume Munar

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability85%
Implied (with margin)88%
Model edge-3.5%
Odds1.13 2/15
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz89%
Jaume Munar12%
$31,523 liquidity · $1,897 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Jaume Munar's 78%
  • Jaume Munar wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Jaume Munar's 38%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win77%1.29—
Jaume Munar to win23%4.43—
Match Winner — Carlos Alcaraz—1.13—
Match Winner — Jaume Munar—8.40—