Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi
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Tennis·ATP Japan Open· 2026-10-03 · 02:00

Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability93%
Implied (with margin)94%
Model edge-1.0%
Odds1.06 1/16
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz92%
Matteo Arnaldi9%
$44,539 liquidity · $25,684 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Matteo Arnaldi's 77%
  • Matteo Arnaldi wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 56%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Matteo Arnaldi's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win86%1.16—
Matteo Arnaldi to win14%7.09—
Match Winner — Carlos Alcaraz—1.07—
Match Winner — Matteo Arnaldi—16.88—