Daniil Medvedev v Frances Tiafoe
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-06 · 15:00

Daniil Medvedev v Frances Tiafoe

Recommended bet
Daniil Medvedev
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability60%
Implied (with margin)59%
Model edge+1.2%
Odds1.70 8/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev59%
Frances Tiafoe42%
$79,543 liquidity · $11,107 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Daniil Medvedev double-faults on 5% of serve points vs Frances Tiafoe's 3%
  • Daniil Medvedev wins 40% of return points vs Frances Tiafoe's 36%
Best valueDaniil Medvedev+5.1% EV@ 1.70highest expected value — the hero above is the most likely to land
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Daniil Medvedev to win62%1.62—
Frances Tiafoe to win38%2.62—
Match Winner — Daniil Medvedev—1.70—
Match Winner — Frances Tiafoe—2.40—