Daniil Medvedev v Pablo Carreno Busta
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Tennis·ATP China Open· 2026-10-02 · 07:00

Daniil Medvedev v Pablo Carreno Busta

Recommended bet
Daniil Medvedev
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability79%
Implied (with margin)81%
Model edge-1.8%
Odds1.24 1/4
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev82%
Pablo Carreno Busta19%
$184,584 liquidity · $22,860 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Daniil Medvedev double-faults on 5% of serve points vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 3%
  • Daniil Medvedev wins 40% of return points vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 35%
  • Daniil Medvedev serves aces on 10% of points vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 5%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Daniil Medvedev to win74%1.34—
Pablo Carreno Busta to win26%3.92—
Match Winner — Daniil Medvedev—1.24—
Match Winner — Pablo Carreno Busta—5.10—