Daria Kasatkina v Paula Badosa
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Tennis·WTA US Open· 2026-09-01 · 16:10

Daria Kasatkina v Paula Badosa

Recommended bet
Paula Badosa
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability54%
Implied (with margin)54%
Model edge-0.5%
Odds1.84 5/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Daria Kasatkina46%
Paula Badosa55%
$41,732 liquidity · $255 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Paula Badosa holds serve 69% of games vs Daria Kasatkina's 60%
  • Daria Kasatkina wins 47% of return points vs Paula Badosa's 44%
Best valueDaria Kasatkina+4.2% EV@ 2.16highest expected value — the hero above is the most likely to land
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Paula Badosa to win52%1.93—
Daria Kasatkina to win48%2.07—
Match Winner — Daria Kasatkina—2.16—
Match Winner — Paula Badosa—1.84—