Denis Shapovalov v Alejandro Tabilo
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Tennis·ATP Japan Open· 2026-10-03 · 02:00

Denis Shapovalov v Alejandro Tabilo

Recommended bet
Denis Shapovalov
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability56%
Implied (with margin)60%
Model edge-6.0%
Odds1.68 4/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Denis Shapovalov59%
Alejandro Tabilo42%
$97,814 liquidity · $21,913 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Denis Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Alejandro Tabilo's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Alejandro Tabilo to win51%1.97—
Denis Shapovalov to win49%2.03—
Match Winner — Alejandro Tabilo—2.43—
Match Winner — Denis Shapovalov—1.68—