Denis Shapovalov v Luca Van Assche
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-02 · 15:00

Denis Shapovalov v Luca Van Assche

Recommended bet
Denis Shapovalov
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability57%
Implied (with margin)58%
Model edge-2.5%
Odds1.72 8/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Denis Shapovalov57%
Luca Van Assche43%
$22,544 liquidity · $275 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Denis Shapovalov double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Luca Van Assche's 4%
Best valueLuca Van Assche+6.3% EV@ 2.32highest expected value — the hero above is the most likely to land
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Denis Shapovalov to win54%1.85—
Luca Van Assche to win46%2.18—
Match Winner — Denis Shapovalov—1.72—
Match Winner — Luca Van Assche—2.35—