Jaime Faria v Carlos Alcaraz
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-03 · 00:10

Jaime Faria v Carlos Alcaraz

Recommended bet
Carlos Alcaraz
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability90%
Implied (with margin)91%
Model edge-0.5%
Odds1.10 1/10
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Jaime Faria9%
Carlos Alcaraz91%
$41,337 liquidity · $64,064 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Carlos Alcaraz holds serve 87% of games vs Jaime Faria's 78%
  • Jaime Faria wins only 50% of 2nd-serve points (Carlos Alcaraz: 57%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz wins 41% of return points vs Jaime Faria's 35%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Carlos Alcaraz to win90%1.11—
Jaime Faria to win10%9.77—
Match Winner — Carlos Alcaraz—1.11—
Match Winner — Jaime Faria—10.50—