Marcos Giron v Sebastian Baez
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Tennis·ATP Shanghai Masters· 2026-10-08 · 04:00

Marcos Giron v Sebastian Baez

Recommended bet
Sebastian Baez
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability55%
Implied (with margin)56%
Model edge-2.3%
Odds1.78 4/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Marcos Giron45%
Sebastian Baez56%
$35,692 liquidity · $8,011 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Marcos Giron holds serve 81% of games vs Sebastian Baez's 73%
  • Sebastian Baez wins 39% of return points vs Marcos Giron's 36%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Sebastian Baez to win53%1.87—
Marcos Giron to win47%2.14—
Match Winner — Marcos Giron—2.18—
Match Winner — Sebastian Baez—1.81—