Maria Timofeeva v Elise Mertens
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Tennis·WTA US Open· 2026-09-03 · 15:00

Maria Timofeeva v Elise Mertens

Recommended bet
Elise Mertens
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability72%
Implied (with margin)74%
Model edge-1.8%
Odds1.36 4/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Maria Timofeeva27%
Elise Mertens74%
$25,192 liquidity · $8 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Elise Mertens holds serve 71% of games vs Maria Timofeeva's 60%
  • Elise Mertens double-faults on 6% of serve points vs Maria Timofeeva's 5%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Elise Mertens to win68%1.47
Maria Timofeeva to win32%3.12
Match Winner — Elise Mertens1.36
Match Winner — Maria Timofeeva3.65