Maria Timofeeva v Naomi Osaka
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Tennis·WTA China Open· 2026-10-02 · 08:10

Maria Timofeeva v Naomi Osaka

Recommended bet
Naomi Osaka
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability78%
Implied (with margin)78%
Model edge-0.2%
Odds1.28 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Maria Timofeeva22%
Naomi Osaka79%
$125,793 liquidity · $1,074 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Naomi Osaka holds serve 74% of games vs Maria Timofeeva's 60%
  • Naomi Osaka serves aces on 8% of points vs Maria Timofeeva's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Naomi Osaka to win77%1.29—
Maria Timofeeva to win23%4.39—
Match Winner — Maria Timofeeva—4.40—
Match Winner — Naomi Osaka—1.28—