Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone
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Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-02 · 15:00

Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone

Recommended bet
Matteo Berrettini
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability61%
Implied (with margin)63%
Model edge-3.0%
Odds1.58 4/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Matteo Berrettini64%
Mariano Navone37%
$121,160 liquidity · $224 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Matteo Berrettini holds serve 86% of games vs Mariano Navone's 72%
  • Mariano Navone wins 41% of return points vs Matteo Berrettini's 34%
  • Matteo Berrettini serves aces on 12% of points vs Mariano Navone's 3%
Best valueMariano Navone+8.5% EV@ 2.60highest expected value — the hero above is the most likely to land
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Matteo Berrettini to win58%1.72—
Mariano Navone to win42%2.40—
Match Winner — Mariano Navone—2.67—
Match Winner — Matteo Berrettini—1.58—