Naomi Osaka v Elise Mertens
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Tennis·WTA US Open· 2026-09-05 · 15:00

Naomi Osaka v Elise Mertens

Recommended bet
Naomi Osaka
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability69%
Implied (with margin)72%
Model edge-4.7%
Odds1.39 2/5
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Naomi Osaka71%
Elise Mertens29%
$8,289 liquidity · $1,039 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Elise Mertens double-faults on 6% of serve points vs Naomi Osaka's 4%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Naomi Osaka to win53%1.87—
Elise Mertens to win47%2.15—
Match Winner — Elise Mertens—3.60—
Match Winner — Naomi Osaka—1.39—